JPY: staying long into risk-laden week - TDS


Analysts at TD Securities are staling ling of the yen into this risk-laden week.

Key Quotes:

"With the Fed set to deliver a widely expected rate hike and the ECB to have a more fruitful discussion about its QE policy, the BoJ will be happy to skirt the limelight this week. Little changes should be expected overall."

"The BoJ bought itself more flexibility in April. While the removal of the 2% inflation timeline means a steady-as-she-goes course of policy, it gives the BoJ leeway to tweak YCC when there is enough evidence of price persistence - likely as the ECB nears or completes QE. Despite the recent slowdown, underlying CPI should be supported thanks to a solidly positive output gap, which feed through with a lag."

"The recent USD uptrend has nearly matured as markets appear to move away from "divergence". This, along with a number of medium-term factors may challenge USD/JPY's beta to UST yields, but leave the JPY conflicted on crosses (EURJPY most notably)."

"We sit short USD/JPY as trade tensions intensify, the Trump discount returns & see a dovish reaction in UST yields to the Fed."

"The technical backdrop suggests a breakout is imminent, and view a move below 108 as bearish. 110.20 resistance is formidable; a move above is likely to be a false breakout and should be faded."
 

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