India to see U/L-shaped recovery; package execution key – Rabobank

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Hugo Erken, Head of International Economics at Rabobank, said in its latest note, the Indian economy is likely to see a U/L shaped recovery rather than a V-shaped recovery.

Key quotes

"India’s economy could even emerge stronger from COVID-19 crisis if the federal government’s INR20-trillion stimulus package that addresses structural weakness is properly executed."

“Ultimately, we expect the COVID-19 crisis to cost each Indian between INR8,000 to INR16,000 in 2025 of missed economic growth compared to a benchmark scenario of no pandemic, depending on the shape of the recovery.”

“In case of a U/L - shaped recovery, we also expect structural growth to decline from 5.7% to 5%, caused by lower investment and productivity growth.”

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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