Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD probes the 100-day EMA as buyers' eye $1735
- Gold fluctuates in the New York session amid the uncertainty of midterm elections in the United States.
- US Treasury yields are rising, underpinning the US Dollar, which is up more than 0.50% against most G8 peers.
- Gold Price Analysis: Testing the 100-day EMA, which, once broken, would shift the bias to neutral-upwards as buyers are in control.
Gold price is trading in the red, unable to crack the key resistance level at around $1716, while US Treasury yields edge higher, underpinning the American Dollar, which per the US Dollar Index, tumbled below 110.000 on Tuesday. Factors like the United States midterm elections grabbed the spotlight, with a tighter-than-expected race weighing on the market mood. At the time of typing, the XAUUSD is trading at $1711.50, fluctuating.
Gold remains trendless around $1710 awaiting US midterm elections results and CPI
US equities are set to open lower, as shown by the futures market. A close race between the Republicans and Democrats turned sentiment sour, as polls suggest that the former might regain control of the US House while the Democrats would keep control of the US Senate. That said, the US Treasury yields rallied, led by the 10-year rising two basis points, at 4.155%, a tailwind for the precious metals space.
Additionally, the US 10-year real yield, which is the yield of the 10-year bond minus inflation expectations for the same time horizon, sits at 1.70%, capping the Gold rally on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the bucks’ value vs. a basket of peers, is snapping three days of consecutive losses, up by 0.54% at 110.220.
In the last week, the World Gould Council reported that central banks bought 400 tonnes of Gold in the third quarter, which according to last year’s data, was an increase of 300%, and it was the largest quantity of Gold bought since 2000.
That said, expectations for Gold resuming the uptrend lie in the hands of the Federal Reserve. Ahead of the week, the United States inflation report for October would keep investors on their toes as they assess the Fed-s next move. A US inflation jump wouldn’t deter Fed policymakers from tightening aggressively.
So if inflation moderates, that could be a tailwind for XAUUSD, which could benefit from “parked” US Treasury yields.
Gold Price Analysis: Technical outlook
Following Tuesday’s rally, which broke an eight-month-old downslope resistance trendline, the XAUUSD faces solid resistance at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1715.91. It should be said that Gold made a base at around the year-to-date lows of around $1614-$1617, and that zone was tested three times, with USD buyers unable to crack the $1600 figure. Therefore, a test of the August 25 daily high at $1765.48 is likely to happen, but XAU buyers need to clear the 100-day EMA.
Once done, the XAUUSD next resistance would be the August 22 daily low-turned-resistance at $1727.90, followed by the psychological $1750.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Christian Borjon began his career as a retail trader in 2010, mainly focused on technical analysis and strategies around it. He started as a swing trader, as he used to work in another industry unrelated to the financial markets.
