Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD jumps to fresh 5-week high, approaches $1,700 amid a soft US Dollar

Gold price creeps higher amidst the lack of US economic data as investors brace for US elections and October’s CPI.
US Treasury bond yields are lower on the day, while expectations for a 50 bps rate hike by the Fed stood above 50%.
Gold Price Analysis: Neutral-to-upward biased and might test $1,700 in the short term.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

Gold price is subdued as the North American session begins, extending its gains due to a bid US Dollar as midterm elections in the United States increased risk appetite while rising US Treasury yields are a headwind for the precious metals segment. Hence, the XAUUSD is trading at $1,694.60, slightly above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), down by 0.04%.

Gold price recovers its shine, though fluctuates, as traders brace for US election results

Sentiment is mixed, as US equities fluctuate at the New York open. The lack of meaningful economic data, aside from the US midterm elections, with the US House and the Senate at stake, is grabbing the headlines. Also, October US inflation figures, to be released on Thursday, would be the barometer for investors of what the Federal Reserve will decide at the December meeting.

Aside from this, US Treasury yields, mainly the 10-year T-bond yield is, retreating from weekly highs of 4.24% down to 4.161%. Meanwhile, expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December meeting remain tilted towards hiking 50 bps, as shown by the CME FedWatch Tool at 52%. The odds for a 75 bps increase are 48%, unchanged from a day ago.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the buck’s value against G8 currencies, dives 0.44%, at 109.74.

A light US economic docket revealed the US Redbook Index, which came out at 7.6% below its previous reading, while the US IBD/IPP Economic Optimism for November dived from 41.6 to 40.4.

Gold (XAUUSD) Price Analysis: Technical outlook

XAUUASD suddenly jumped unexpectedly in the last 5 minutes, recording a daily high of $1,698, shy of breaking the $1,700 figure, which could open the door to pose a challenge to the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,716.96. If the XAUUSD clears the latter, that will open the door toward the 200-day EMA at $1,805.

On the other hand, key support levels lie at the 50-day EMA at $1,672, ahead of the November 8 daily low at $1,664.80 and the $1,650 figure.

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

AUD/USD rises to 0.6950 as USD slips on Fed's Warsh

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the bounce toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. Fed Chair Warsh's comments reinforce the selling pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the pair to stretch higher. Warsh said that he remains committed to delivering price stability without giving away anything on future interest rate path.

USD/JPY falls in symc with USD, gives up 158.00 after Warsh's speech

USD/JPY has come under fresh selling pressure and gives up 158.00 in the Asian session on Friday amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling. Fed Chair Warsh's non-committal commentary on the future tightening path, weighs on the US Dollar and the pair.

Gold looks vacillating above $4,150

Gold alternates gains with losses below the key $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The yellow metal’s irresolute price action comes in response to a modest pullback in the US Dollar and a tepid recovery in US Treasury yields across the board.

Bitcoin steadies at $82,000: The five forces crushing the Uptober rally

Crypto markets have remained under pressure so far in October, with Bitcoin (BTC) sliding below $80,000 earlier this week before recovering to around $82,000 on Friday, as macroeconomic headwinds and cooling demand weigh on the market.

The Fed just got a second hot inflation number. Here's what the diesel signal is really saying

The Federal Reserve (Fed) faces a renewed inflation challenge after two consecutive reports showed price pressure intensifying across the US economy. September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) confirmed accelerating consumer inflation, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed an even sharper rise in business costs. Behind both reports lies a common factor: energy prices.

Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff

Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.