Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD moves below $1,850 on market caution, Fed Powell speech eyed

Gold price faces challenges after the moderate US data on Friday.
US passed bills to avert a government shutdown, securing funding until November 17.
Higher US Treasury yields put pressure on non-yielding assets like Gold.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

Gold price extends its losing streak that began on September 25, trading lower around $1,840 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Monday.

China’s Manufacturing PMI data was released over the weekend, which showed improvement into positive territory but failed to provide any support for the Gold prices. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI for August grew to 50.2 from the previous 49.7 figures, exceeding the 50.0 expected.

Additionally, the Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 from the 51.0 previous reading, surpassing the market consensus of 51.5.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds ground to continue to gain in the second trading session after the moderate datasets from the United States (US). The spot price bids higher around 106.20.

Additionally, the upbeat US Treasury Yields are contributing support to the USD’s strength. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond stands at 4.61% by the press time, up by 0.96%.

The prices of precious metals face challenges, primarily due to the upbeat US Dollar (USD) after the moderate economic data released on Friday. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sep) improved to 68.1 from the previous figure of 67.7, which was expected to remain unchanged.

US Core PCE - Price Index (YoY) for August rose 3.9% as estimated, eased from the previous reading of 4.3%. Core PCE (MoM) showed a soft reading of 0.1% against the market consensus to be consistent at the 0.2% prior.

Following the Friday session, bills were successfully passed in the US to avert a government shutdown, securing funding until November 17. This development has prompted a resumption of the US Dollar (USD) upward trajectory.

The Gold traders will likely watch the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September ahead of the Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Monday.

XAU/USD: additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	1843.97
Today Daily Change	-4.57
Today Daily Change %	-0.25
Today daily open	1848.54

Trends
Daily SMA20	1912.2
Daily SMA50	1921.29
Daily SMA100	1935.2
Daily SMA200	1927.58

Levels
Previous Daily High	1879.88
Previous Daily Low	1846.37
Previous Weekly High	1927.27
Previous Weekly Low	1846.37
Previous Monthly High	1953.01
Previous Monthly Low	1846.37
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1859.17
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1867.08
Daily Pivot Point S1	1836.65
Daily Pivot Point S2	1824.75
Daily Pivot Point S3	1803.14
Daily Pivot Point R1	1870.16
Daily Pivot Point R2	1891.77
Daily Pivot Point R3	1903.67

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

GBP/USD: Gains remain capped below 1.3200 ahead of US PCE

GBP/USD clings to minor recovery gains, but remains below 1.3200 in the European session on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the pair appear limited amid UK political instability and rising expectations of US interest rate hikes this year. Traders await the US May PCE inflation data on Thursday for a clear direction.

EUR/USD defends 1.1350 as eyes turn to US PCE inflation

EUR/USD trades better bid above 1.1350 in European trading on Thursday. A pause in the US Dollar rally is helping the pair stay afloat. Markets look to the key US Personal Consumption Expenditures report for fresh trading impetus.

Gold consolidates around $4,000 ahead of US PCE data

Gold enters a bearish consolidation phase during the first half of the European session, and currently trades around the $4,000 psychological mark. The commodity sticks to its bearish bias for the third straight day, and remains close to the lowest level since November 2025, touched on Wednesday, as traders await the crucial US inflation data.

Bitcoin tests $60,000 as whales sell off – Aave and Jupiter show resilience

The broader cryptocurrency market remains under intense selling pressure, with Bitcoin back at $60,000 for the third time this year. On-chain data shows selling pressure from large-wallet investors, commonly referred to as whales, while total liquidations hit nearly $1 billion in 24 hours.

Bitcoin nears make-or-break level ahead of US PCE data

Bitcoin recovers slightly, trading at $61,700 after reaching a new yearly low of $59,103 and a 21-month low the previous day. This bearish price action is supported by the ongoing institutional sell-off, which recorded an outflow of over $469 million on Wednesday.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.