Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD consolidates above $1,900, awaits US Nonfarm Payrolls data

Gold price finds some support near the $1,910 region and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's sharp retracement slide from the highest since April 2022. The XAU/USD, however, seems to struggle to gain any traction and oscillates in a range around the $1,915 area through the first half of the European session.

Modest US Dollar strength caps upside for Gold price

The US Dollar (USD) manages to preserve the overnight recovery gains from a nine-month low, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the US Dollar-denominated Gold price. Hopes for a positive surprise from the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), due later during the early North American session from the United States weigh on Gold whilst supporting the US Dollar. Upbeat expectations have been fueled by better-than-expected Weekly Initial Jobless Claims released on Thursday, which pointed to the underlying strength in the labor market.

Sliding US bond yields lend support to Gold price

The upbeat data, meanwhile, forces investors to scale back their bets for an imminent pause in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate hike cycle. This is seen as another factor lending support to the buck and capping the upside for the non-yielding Gold price. That said, a modest downtick in the US Treasury bond yields holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Apart from this, a generally weaker tone around the equity markets contributes to limiting the downside for the safe-haven XAU/USD, for the time being.

Focus remains on monthly jobs data from United States

Traders also seem reluctant and prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of the closely-watched NonFarm Payrolls report. The data is expected to show that the economy added 185K jobs in January, down from 223K in the previous month. Moreover, the jobless rate is anticipated to edge higher to 3.6% from 3.5% in December. The key US macro data will influence the USD demand and provide a fresh impetus to Gold price. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD remains on track for its first weekly fall in seven.

Gold price technical outlook

From a technical perspective, any subsequent slide is likely to find decent support near the $1,900 round-figure mark. A convincing break below might prompt technical selling and expose the $1,880-$1,877 support zone. Gold price could eventually slide to test the next relevant support near the $1,856-$1,855 region.

On the flip side, the $1,920 level now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the XAU/USD could climb back to the $1,949-$1,950 region. Some follow-through buying should allow Gold price to surpass an intermediate hurdle near the $1.970-$1,980 area and aim to reclaim the $2,000 psychological mark for the first time since March 2022.

Key levels to watch