Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD approaches March with sober face below $1,825 hurdle – Confluence Detector

Gold price retreats towards intraday low amid sluggish session, stays on the way to first monthly loss in five.
A pause in Treasury bond buying, mixed US-China headlines join hawkish Fed bets to keep XAU/USD sellers hopeful.
Repeated failures to cross $1,825 resistance confluence tease Gold bears as March looms.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains sluggish as traders brace for a quiet end to the volatile February, after an upbeat start to the week. The yellow metal’s latest weakness could be linked to the mixed concerns surrounding the US-China ties, as well as the unimpressive prints of the second-tier US data. However, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) concerns and upbeat US Treasury bond yields, despite the latest inaction, keep the Gold bears hopeful.

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes daily close for Falling Wedge confirmation

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the Gold price grinds below the $1,825 resistance confluence which encompasses the Fibonacci 38.2% on one-week and the previous monthly low.

With this, the XAU/USD flirts with Fibonacci 38.2% on one-day, around $1,815, a break of which could quickly drag the metal prices towards $1,809 support level, including the previous weekly low and Pivot Point one-day S1.

In case where the Gold price remains weak past $1,809, there appears a smooth road towards $1,800 threshold comprising Pivot Point one-week S1 and Fibonacci 161% on one-day.

On the flip side, Fibonacci 23.6% on daily and Pivot Point one-day R1 guards immediate upside of the Gold price near $1,820 and $1,822, before highlighting the key $1,825 hurdle.

Should the XAU/USD price remains firmer past $1,825, a convergence of the 10-DMA and Fibonacci 61.8% on one-day, near $1,833, precedes the $1,838 hurdle including Pivot Point one-week R1 and one-day R3 to challenge the bulls.

Overall, the Gold price stays well-set to end February on a negative note.

Here is how it looks on the tool

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

GBP/USD trims gains, back to around 1.3500

GBP/USD now surrenders part of the earlier move to multi-week peaks around 1.3530 and comes close to the 1.3500 support on Monday. Cable’s uptick comes in tandem with decent gains in the Greenback, always amid persistent uncertainty lingering over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran talks.

EUR/USD deflates to 1.1540

EUR/USD begins the week on the back foot, retesting the 1.1540 zone as the NA session draws to a close. The better tone in the US Dollar weighs on the risk complex, sparking the daily correction in spot, always on the back of unabated effervescence in the Middle East.

Gold surges past $4,400, hitting fresh two-month highs

Gold climbs further beyond $4,400, touching its highest level since June 5 in the Asian session on Tuesday. Easing Fed rate hike expectations continue to drive flows towards the non-yielding bullion. Meanwhile, inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices back the case for at least one rate hike in 2026, which supports the US Dollar and might cap the precious metal ahead of the crucial US CPI report on Wednesday.

Bitcoin softens on institutional selling – CRV, ICP outperform

The broader cryptocurrency market shows mixed sentiment as Bitcoin (BTC) drops to $64,000 under institutional selling pressure. The Fear and Greed Index at 37, down from 40 the previous day, signals renewed bearish pressure. Meanwhile, Curve DAO (CRV) and Internet Computer (ICP) continue to extend their gains so far this week, emerging as top performers over the last 24 hours.

Breakouts, fakeouts, and the levels that decide what comes next

Friday gave metal bulls something to celebrate, with gold confirming a major breakout and silver finally pushing above its consolidation. Still, Monday’s action is a reminder that breaking a level is only half the job - the market now needs to prove it can hold those gains.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.