Between the start of the year and 4 May, Gold prices rallied by 13%. Since then, they have lost momentum. Strategists at ABN Amro have downgraded their Gold price forecast for 2024 to $2,000 (from $2,200 before). They now have for 2023 and 2024 a year-end forecast of $2,000.
Being long at current levels may not be attractive
Rate expectations (real and nominal) and the outlook for the US Dollar are the most important drivers for Gold prices. So we have downgraded our Gold price forecast for 2024 to $2,000 (from $2,200 before). We now have for 2023 and 2024 a year-end forecast of $2,000.
The start of monetary policy easing by the Fed is generally positive for Gold prices. But as the market has already anticipated this, it is already reflected in the Gold price. Therefore, we think that upside in Gold prices versus the USD is rather limited from current levels.
Overall, the positioning in Gold is not extreme. But from a risk reward point of view being long at current levels may not be attractive.
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