Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD stabilises ahead of bombardment of Fed speak and key US data next week

Spot gold prices are consolidating in the low $1740s, close the 21DMA which currently resides just above $1740.
Next week, gold’s key drivers will be a bombardment of Fed speak, preliminary Markit PMIs and Core CPE inflation.

Joel Frank Independent Analyst

Spot gold prices (XAU/USD) are consolidating in the low $1740s, close the 21-day moving average which currently resides just above $1740. Prices have been generally well supported above the $1730 level, amid a lack of any real fundamental drivers throughout the day, as well as relatively subdued price action in FX markets (USD is flat) and bond markets (US 10-year bond yields are flat). On the day, it looks as though gold will close with gains of around a quarter of a percent or roughly $5, which translated into modest gains on the week of around 0.8% or just under $15.

Next week, the key fundamental drivers of gold will be a bombardment of Fed speak, including from Fed Chair Jerome Powell who speaks on three separate occasions, as well as comments from Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida and NY Fed President John Williams. US data in the form of the timely preliminary Markit PMI report for the month of March (out on Wednesday) and February Core PCE inflation data (the Fed’s favoured gauge of inflation will also be worth watching. Ultimately, what happens with USD and real yields is likely to determine where gold goes; if both continue to rise, that could spell pain for gold, though if inflation expectations keep surging, this could be supportive.

Technical observations

This week’s price action has confirmed that spot gold is consolidating within a bearish flag; to the upside, an uptrend linking the 4, 11 and 18 March highs has been constraining the price action, whilst to the downside, an uptrend linking the 5, 12 and 18 March lows has been supporting the price action. Typically, such structures occur when an asset is consolidating following recent losses, with a break to the downside of the flag acting as the sell signal for further downside – such a sell signal could be triggered by a break below the $1720-$1730 area and could open the door to a drop all the way back towards the psychologically important $1700 level and an eventual drop back to monthly lows around $1680.

XAU/USD four hour chart

Author

Joel Frank

Independent Analyst

Joel Frank is an economics graduate from the University of Birmingham and has worked as a full-time financial market analyst since 2018, specialising in the coverage of how developments in the global economy impact financial asset

AUD/USD falls to near 0.7100 after slipping below 50-day EMA

AUD/USD depreciates after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair consolidating sideways within a rectangle pattern, as neither bulls nor bears gain control. The AUD/USD pair is holding a slight bearish tone however as it sits beneath both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs.

160.00: USD/JPY back near intervention territory after upbeat US jobs report

US Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations by a wide margin in May, with 172K jobs added. The US Dollar rebounds after the release, helping USD/JPY recover from its intraday lows. Warnings from Japanese authorities continue to limit upside potential near the 160.00 threshold.

Gold targets $4,300 amid stronger Dollar

Gold faces increasing selling interest and navigates the area of three-month lows near the $4,300 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal’s decline comes as traders assess the stronger-than-expected NFP, while the bid bias in the Greenback and higher US Treasury yields also collaborate with the retracement.

Cardano hits five-year low even as Hoskinson clarifies "break" isn't an exit

Cardano (ADA) price is down 10% at press time on Friday, extending losses over 30% so far this week amid Charles Hoskinson's clarification that "break" isn't an exit.

Week ahead – Fed countdown begins amid US inflation data and geopolitical risks

Fed Chair Warsh’s first meeting approaches as key US inflation data could reshape expectations. Oil prices remain elevated as US-Iran talks continue; tariffs also return to the spotlight. ECB is expected to hike; will it be a one-off move or is July live?

The US economy defies the rules: 100 days into the Oil shock and the recession signal is still missing

More than three months after the start of the Iran war and the resulting disruption to global energy markets, the US economy continues to display remarkable resilience. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in Oil prices, reignited inflationary pressures and fueled widespread concerns about a potential economic slowdown.