|

Gold Price Analysis: Key levels to watch as XAU/USD sees a dead cat bounce – Confluence Detector

Gold (XAU/USD) is attempting a minor bounce from six-week lows of $1817. However, the further upside appears elusive as the Treasury yields continue its surge on US stimulus hopes and drive the US dollar higher.

Investors remain hopeful that US President-elect Joe Biden will announce a bigger fiscal stimulus package when he makes an important economic speech on Thursday.

How is gold positioned on the charts heading into a new week?

Gold Price Chart: Key resistances and supports

The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that gold has recaptured strong resistance at $1927, which is the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day.

The buyers now target the next relevant upside target at $1940, where the SMA200 one-day lies.

Acceptance above the latter is needed to bolster the recovery momentum, as the $1850 hurdle will come into play. That level is the confluence of the previous high four-hour and Fibonacci 23.6% one-day.

Further up, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month at $1857 could be tested.

Alternatively, a drop below the abovementioned key resistance now support at $1927 could trigger a quick drop towards $1815, the pivot point one-month S1.

The bears could then challenge the pivot point one-day S1 at $1811, which is the last resort for the bulls.

Here is how it looks on the tool

fxsoriginal

About Confluence Detector

The TCI (Technical Confluences Indicator) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies.

Learn more about Technical   Confluence

Author

Dhwani Mehta

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

More from Dhwani Mehta
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD defends 1.3300 after strong UK PMI data

Following Thursday's sharp decline, GBP/USD clings to small gains above 1.3300 in the American session on Friday, supported by the upbeat UK Retail Sales and July PMI data. Nevertheless, the pair's upside remains capped as investors cling to a cautious stance amid a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US July PMI data failed to trigger relevant price action.

EUR/USD remains below 1.1400 after mixed US PMIs

EUR/USD pressures daily lows below the 1.1400 mark in the American session on Friday. Mixed S&P Global PMIs, as manufacturing output contracted while services activity expanded in July, triggered no relevant market reaction. The focus remains in Middle East developments and inflation-related concerns.

Gold holds above $4,050 but momentum still missing

Gold builds on its modest intraday bounce and climbs above the $4,050 level on Friday, hitting a fresh daily high amid a modest US Dollar pullback. The fundamental backdrop, however, warrants some caution before confirming that the pullback from an over two-week high, touched on Wednesday, has run its course and positioning for any meaningful upside.

Week ahead: Fed, BoE and BoJ face inflation test as markets reprice interest rate paths
The US dollar gained against the other major currencies this week amid the escalating tensions in the Middle East as well as US President Trump’s decision to proceed with a new round of tariffs after previously imposed levies expired.
Australian Dollar outlook: Chances of another rally won’t be decided in Canberra, but in Washington

The Australian Dollar rode a rollercoaster in the first half of the year, hitting a four-year high and then correcting. The currency enters the second half with an outlook full of uncertainty due to renewed hostilities in the Middle East, which clouds the inflation outlook and interest rates.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.