Gold: a golden death cross has formed, eyes on Dec 2017 lows

  • Gold is still in the hands of the bears.
  • A golden death cross has formed and is the first to form in the commodity since around November of 2016.

The price of Gold has made a round trip at the start of this week, picking up demand at the Asian lows of $1,264.42 to $1,270.52 the European high and carving out a downside case within a London/NY chop to trade at $1,264.7 the current low - At the time of writing, Gold is trading at $1,265.80 heading into the NY close. 

There was a modest flight to safety in the markets on Monday, with some trade war noise going on in the background where China and the EU came out of talks united against the threat of US protectionism. China’s Vice Premier Liu He announced that both the EU and China are “firmly oppose unilateralism and protectionism and think these actions may bring recession and turbulence to the global economy”.

The US yield in the 10-years was lower by 2pbs at 2.87% and within the day's rage of 2.86%-2.89%. The bund yield was down 1bp to 0.33%. The DXY was down 0.19% at the time of writing having traded between 94.21 - 94.70, and lower against all G10 with the exception of AUD, while the EUR outperformed. Commodities, in general, softened as well though, with the CRB Index down around 1.00% at the time of writing. Global equity markets were weak. The S&P 500 and DJIA were down 2.0% and 1.8% at the time of writing. All in all, leaving gold to trade in a sideways range at the start of the week. 

From the economic front, despite interest rates climbing, US new home sales were firmer than expected in May, up 6.7% m/m at 689k vs 667k consensus and prior 646k. Sales were up 14% y/y with properties under construction up 15.8% on an annual basis. Elsewhere, Dallas Fed manufacturing activity rose to 36.5 in June, from 26.8 in May, but the underlying details were mixed. 

Gold in a summary

In summary, gold is still in the hands of the bears and made the lowest level on a spot basis year to date last week, even as the U.S. dollar, strong throughout the month, weakened against its currency rivals. The path of least resistance remains to the downside although traders are looking out for further trade war angst volatility that could easily see the safe haven run back towards the psychological $1,300 level. However, while the Federal Reserve continues its plan to raise benchmark interest rates, that is bullish for the greenback that trades in a negative correlation to gold.

Gold levels

Gold Technical Analysis: Yellow metal consolidating below $1,270/oz

On the wider time framed charts, a golden death cross has formed and is the first to form in the commodity since around November of 2016; (The 50-D SMA moving average for gold prices, currently at $1,303 is falling below its longer-term 200-D SMA moving average at $1,305, potentially marking this spot a short-term decline into a longer-term downtrend). Supports for the pair align at $1264 (daily low), 1252.50 (Dec. 18 low) and $1243 (Dec. 8 low). On the flipside, resistances look to be 1276 (Jun. 20 high) ahead of $1289 (21-D SMA) and $1300 (psychological level).

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