Global potential growth is unlikely to exceed 1.8% from 2020 to 2030 - Natixis

Patrick Artus, Research Analyst at Natixis, examined trends in demographics and productivity gains in the major regions and countries: United States, euro zone, United Kingdom, Japan, China, India, other Asian emerging countries, Latin America, Africa, other OECD countries, other European countries and Russia and suggests that global potential growth is unlikely to exceed 1.8% from 2020 to 2030

Key Quotes

“With regard to potential growth in these regions, this points towards a significant slowdown in the United States, Europe, other OECD countries, Russia, Turkey, China and Asian emerging countries; and relative stability in Japan, India, Latin America and Africa.”

“Global potential growth is unlikely to exceed 1.8% from 2020 to 2030, whereas it was 4% prior to the 2008 crisis.”

“This slowdown in global potential growth relative to today can be expected to lead to:

• With regard to catch-up in purchasing power in poor countries, a problem for Latin America;
• With regard to energy consumption and CO2 emissions, approximate stability.”