German flash manufacturing PMI slips to 43.1 in July, EUR/USD hits fresh 2-month lows

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

German manufacturing activity recorded the worst performance in seven years in the month of July, the latest manufacturing activity report from IHS/Markit research showed this Wednesday.

The German manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) arrived at 43.1 versus 45.0 expected and 45.2 previous. Meanwhile, services PMI hit a two-month low level of 55.4 as against previous months reading of 55.8 and 55.3 anticipated.

The IHS Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index came in at 4-month lows of 51.4 in July vs. June’s 52.6 and 52.3 expectations.

Key comments from Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit:

“The health of German manufacturing went from bad to worse in July, according to the flash PMI data, raising the risk of the euro area’s largest member state entering a mild technical recession.”

“The performance from Germany’s goods producers in July is the worst recorded by the survey in seven years, with the renewed weakness mainly stemming from an accelerated drop in export orders – the most marked seen in over a decade.”

“In a further sign of the slowdown in new orders and gloomier outlook affecting firms’ hiring decisions, July’s flash data showed employment rising at the slowest rate for over four years, with factory job losses accelerating.”

On the German PMI disappointment, the selling pressure around the EUR intensified, with EUR/USD hitting fresh two-month lows at 1.1128.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

GBP/USD weakens to two-week lows near 1.3520

GBP/USD trades on the back foot, returning to the low 1.3500s, or two-week troughs, on Tuesday. Cable’s bearish price action follows decent gains in the Greenback at the time when investors assess latest US data releases and the persistent uncertainty in the US-Iran crisis.

EUR/USD remains offered; breaks below 1.1600

EUR/USD now accelerates its daily correction, breaching below the key 1.1600 support level on Tuesday. The pair’s daily correction comes on the back of a decent bounce in the US Dollar despite disappointing US data releases and amid persistent geopolitical concerns.

Gold bears eye $4,300 breakdown amid Fed hike bets, Iran risks, firm USD

Gold languishes near a two-and-a-half-week low, touched during the Asian session on Wednesday, awaiting a break below $4,300 before the next leg down. Escalating US-Iran tensions lift oil prices to a nearly six-week high and fuel inflation fears, reaffirming Fed rate-hike bets. This acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar and undermines demand for the non-yielding bullion.

RBNZ set to raise interest rate to 2.75%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is on track to deliver a follow-through interest rate hike, raising the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by another 25 basis points (bps) from 2.50% to 2.75% on Wednesday. Experts expect a consensus decision this week, unlike a deeply divided outcome predicted during the July monetary policy meeting.

Global bond market sell off haunts markets

Global sovereign bonds are selling off as we start a new month. The UK is, unsurprisingly, taking the biggest hit. Two and 10-year yields rose by 10 basis points at one point on Tuesday, and are currently higher by 7 and 8bps respectively.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.