GBP/USD rises to near 1.2550 due to dovish sentiment surrounding Fed

GBP/USD continues its winning streak for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 1.2550 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The appreciation of the GBP/USD pair could be attributed to the recalibrated expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cuts in 2024 following the release of lower-than-expected jobs data from the United States (US).

On Friday, US Nonfarm Payrolls showed that the United States (US) economy added 175,000 jobs in April, lower than the estimated 243,000, signaling a significant slowdown from March's addition of 315,000 jobs. Additionally, Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) increased by 3.9% in April, slightly lower than expected at 4.0% and 4.1% prior. In the meantime, the monthly growth was at 0.2%, slightly falling short of the expected 0.3%.

The Federal Reserve is now anticipated to enact its initial cut in September, a shift from earlier projections pointing toward November. As per the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25 basis points (bps) rate reduction by the Fed during September's meeting has risen to 48.8%, up from 43.8% a week ago.

Across the pond, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to maintain rates unchanged at 5.25% during Thursday's meeting. Investor sentiment regarding interest rate cuts by the BoE has been postponed to September, as investors express concerns about robust wage growth in the United Kingdom (UK), which is fueling core inflation, the central bank's preferred inflation measure.

In April, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey conveyed optimism as the UK's inflation appeared to be on track to meet the 2% target. The inflation rate dropped to 3.2% in March, marking the lowest rate since September 2021.