|

GBP/USD retreats on US Dollar recovery, trades near 1.2630

  • GBP/USD trades lower due to the improvement in US bond yields.
  • US Dollar (USD) treads water to recover two-day losses.
  • Investors await US economic data, seeking further clues on the Fed’s policy decision.

GBP/USD trades lower around 1.2630 on the back of a recovery in the US Dollar (USD), which could be attributed to the improvement in US Treasury yields snapping a two-day losing streak. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the Greenback against the six other major currencies, trades higher around 103.60 at the time of writing during the Asian session.

The US Dollar (USD) is treading waters to retrace from the two-day losses. US Treasury yields fell by 2.04% on Tuesday, which exerted downward pressure on the buck. Currently, the yield on the 10-year US bond trades at 4.13%. Moreover, the disappointing economic data from the United States (US) on Tuesday further solidified the dovish sentiment regarding the Fed’s policy stance. This has contributed to an increase in downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

As said, US Consumer Confidence (Aug) fell to 106.1 from 114.0 prior, falling short of the expected 116.0. US JOLTS Job Openings showed a reduction in July, reporting 8.827 million against the previous 9.165 million. This contrasted with the expected rise to 9.465 million.

Investors anticipate a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike at the upcoming September’s monetary policy meeting by the Bank of England (BoE). However, there appears to be a sense of caution among investors, as the prospect of additional tightening of monetary policy could potentially have a negative impact on the economic outlook of the United Kingdom (UK).

On the other hand, the CME's FedWatch Tool currently indicates that the market is pricing an 11.5% likelihood of a rate hike during the upcoming meeting by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors are foreseeing that the Fed will likely delay any rate hikes until its September meeting. This prevailing sentiment is leading to a downward pressure on the value of the Greenback.

Furthermore, at the Jackson Hole Symposium, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed's decision regarding the next interest rate hike will be data-driven. Consequently, traders of the GBP/USD pair are currently in a state of anticipation as they await the release of upcoming US economic data.

With a lack of significant data from the UK during the week, investors’ focus has shifted towards gaining a clearer insight into the economic outlook of the United States (US). These upcoming datasets include the US ADP Employment Change for August and the preliminary Gross Domestic Product Annualized for the second quarter (Q2), both of which are scheduled to be released later in the North American trading session.

GBP/USD: additional important levels

Overview
Today last price1.2629
Today Daily Change-0.0015
Today Daily Change %-0.12
Today daily open1.2644
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.2702
Daily SMA501.2782
Daily SMA1001.2644
Daily SMA2001.2407
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.2655
Previous Daily Low1.2563
Previous Weekly High1.28
Previous Weekly Low1.2548
Previous Monthly High1.3142
Previous Monthly Low1.2659
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.262
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.2598
Daily Pivot Point S11.2586
Daily Pivot Point S21.2528
Daily Pivot Point S31.2494
Daily Pivot Point R11.2678
Daily Pivot Point R21.2713
Daily Pivot Point R31.277

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

More from Akhtar Faruqui
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD recovers to 1.1750 region as 2025 draws to a close

Following the bearish action seen in the European session on Wednesday, EUR/USD regains its traction and recovery to the 1.1750 region. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low as trading conditions thin out on the last day of the year.

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3450 on modest USD recovery

GBP/USD remains under modest beairsh pressure and fluctuates at around 1.3450 on Wednesday. The US Dollar finds fresh demand due to the end-of-the-year position adjustments, weighing on the pair amid the pre-New Year trading lull. 

Gold retreats to $4,300 area, looks to post monthly gains

Gold stays on the back foot on the last day of 2025 and trades near $4,300, possibly pressured by profit-taking and position adjustments. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains on track to post gains for December and extend its winning streak into a fifth consecutive month.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP prepare for a potential New Year rebound

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are holding steady on Wednesday after recording minor gains on the previous day. Technically, Bitcoin could extend gains within a triangle pattern while Ethereum and Ripple face critical overhead resistance. 

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).