- GBP/USD trades lower around 1.2720 on the back of softer UK Retail Sales.
- UK Retail Sales decreased both on a monthly and annual basis.
- US Dollar (USD) retreats despite upbeat US economic data.
GBP/USD snaps a three-day winning streak, currently hovering around 1.2720 in the Asian session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair is experiencing downward pressure due to softer retail sales data from the United Kingdom (UK).
UK Retail Sales declined 1.2% in July on month, swinging from a 0.6% increase in June significantly below the 0.5% decline that was expected for July. Moreover, the year-on-year figures showed a contraction of 3.2%, against the previous -1.6% and falling short of the projected -2.1%.
Elevated risk aversion, coupled with robust United States (US) Treasury yields and persistent economic difficulties in China, are placing downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. These factors could contribute to bolstering the strength of the Greenback and potentially influencing the overall direction of the Cable.
GBP/USD traders could adopt a more cautious stance following the release of UK inflation figures on Wednesday. The data has propelled the pair's upward movement, potentially amplifying concerns regarding the possibility of interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE) in the upcoming September meeting.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) retraces gains achieved over the last three trading sessions. The DXY, which measures the performance of the Greenback against the six major currencies, treads water around 103.40. The pullback of the US Dollar (USD) occurs despite improved US data, leading to a sense of caution in the market as it seeks further signals about the inflation scenario.
As said, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on August 11 decreased to 239K from the previous 250K, slightly better than the projected reading of 240K. Moreover, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for August signaled an improvement, with a rise to 12 from the prior -13.5, exceeding the expected -10.
In the upcoming week, investors will likely watch the release of US economic data, particularly Home Sales and the preliminary S&P Global PMI surveys for August. In the UK, the PMI survey will also be released, along with GfK Consumer Confidence data for August. These datasets could provide insights into the state of the economy in both countries, helping to shape potential strategies for placing fresh bets on the GBP/USD pair.
Furthermore, the Jackson Hole Symposium during the upcoming week, held annually, will be a significant point of interest. This event will convene central bankers, policy experts, and academics to thoroughly examine the global economic forecast, placing particular emphasis on addressing the current inflationary environment.
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