GBP/USD recovery looks to recapture 1.2900 as Fed hawks retreat on mixed data, focus on BoE, US NFP

GBP/USD benefits from the US Dollar’s retreat amid a sluggish start to the week comprising the all-important Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Meeting and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). That said, the Cable pair prints mild gains around 1.2860 by the press time after posting a minor weekly loss in the last.

That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) extends the previous day’s retreat from a three-week high on weekend headlines from China and comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari. Furthermore, hopes of witnessing the Bank of England’s (BoE) 0.25% rate hike also allow the Pound Sterling to pare recent losses.

During the last week, the preliminary readings of the UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI for July dropped to the lowest level of 2023 with the 45.0 mark versus the market’s expectations of 46.1 and previous readings of 46.5. That said, the Services PMI also printed a six-month low by declining to 51.5 from 53.7 prior and 53.0 market forecasts. With this, the first readings of the Composite PMI edged lower to 50.7 compared to analysts’ estimations of 52.4 and 52.8 prior. It should be noted that the upbeat UK employment numbers jostled with downbeat inflation clues and recession woes to challenge the BoE hawks. “The Bank of England looks likely to raise rates by a quarter-point to 5.25% on Aug. 3, though economists and markets see a risk of a repeat of June's surprise half-point hike as inflation remains hotter than in other big economies,” said Reuters.

Talking about the weekend news, Bloomberg quoted China's State Council Information Office to flag hopes of a fresh stimulus announcement from Beijing by conveying a surprise press conference around 07:00 AM GMT. That said, the scheduled media conference will include China Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission Li Chunlin and officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce and the State Administration for Market Regulation to unveil more measures to boost the consumption, per the news.

That said, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari flagged fears of job losses and slower growth while praising the inflation outlook. The policymaker also criticized the central bank’s aggressive monetary tightening campaign to tamp down price surges.

Against this backdrop, Wall Street closed positive and the yields retreated together with the US Dollar. Even so, the US Dollar Index (DXY) marked two consecutive weekly gains by the end of Friday’s trading. It’s worth noting that the S&P500 Futures print mild gains by the press time.

Moving on, a light calendar in the UK ahead of Thursday’s BoE may allow the GBP/USD pair to consolidate recent losses. However, the US ISM PMIs and the risk catalysts can test the recovery moves. Above all, the BoE’s ability to defend the hawks and Friday’s US jobs report for July will be crucial to watch for clear directions.

Also read: GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: 1.2550 back in sight ahead of BoE, US NFP

Technical analysis

Doji candlestick on the weekly chart and a clear bounce off the five-week-old rising support line, close to 1.2820 by the press time, suggests further recovery of the GBP/USD pair. It’s worth noting, however, that the 10-DMA hurdle of around 1.2890 restricts the Cable pair’s run-up since July 19.