Pound Sterling underperforms as UK faces stagflation risks amid Middle East war
- The Pound Sterling declines against its major peers amid fears of stagflation in the UK economy.
- Energy prices have surged significantly due to the ongoing war in the Middle East.
- Tehran threatens prolonged war with the US and Israel and denies reports signaling its willingness for negotiations.
The Pound Sterling trades lower against its major currency peers, is down 0.22% around 1.3340 against the US Dollar (USD), during the Asian trade on Thursday. The British currency faces selling pressures amid fears that the United Kingdom (UK) economy could face stagflation risks due to higher energy prices, a situation in which inflation accelerates with economic growth and employment conditions remaining stagnant.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.24% | 0.27% | -0.02% | 0.07% | 0.34% | 0.16% | 0.13% | |
| EUR | -0.24% | 0.03% | -0.24% | -0.16% | 0.09% | -0.07% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.27% | -0.03% | -0.29% | -0.19% | 0.07% | -0.12% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | 0.24% | 0.29% | 0.08% | 0.35% | 0.15% | 0.15% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | 0.16% | 0.19% | -0.08% | 0.27% | 0.09% | 0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.34% | -0.09% | -0.07% | -0.35% | -0.27% | -0.17% | -0.21% | |
| NZD | -0.16% | 0.07% | 0.12% | -0.15% | -0.09% | 0.17% | -0.03% | |
| CHF | -0.13% | 0.11% | 0.13% | -0.15% | -0.06% | 0.21% | 0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The ongoing war between the United States (US), Israel, and Iran, which has disrupted the global oil supply chain by choking the Strait of Hormuz, has prompted energy prices.
Given that the UK imports a significant chunk of energy to fulfil its needs, rising energy prices could fuel inflationary pressures that are already running above the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target for a long period. In January, the UK headline inflation arrived lower at 3% Year-on-Year (YoY).
On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair rebounded after posting a fresh three-month low of 1.3253, and took its recovery to near 1.3400 on Wednesday. The interim recovery move came as the US Dollar’s rally hit pause after a report from the New York Times (NYT) signaled that Iran has expressed openness to the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to discuss terms for ending the war, which has entered its sixth day.
However, the Pound Sterling seems to be struggling to hold the recovery move against the US Dollar, as the latter could resume its upside journey, following statements from Tehran denying negotiation talks with Washington, with threats of a prolonged war.
Meanwhile, in the US, improving employment conditions are expected to force traders to pare dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. The ADP Employment report showed on Wednesday that the US private sector created 63K fresh jobs in February, significantly higher than 50K estimates and the prior reading of 11K.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
