GBP/USD gathers strength above 1.3450 on Fed rate cut bets, BoE's gradual policy path

GBP/USD edges higher to near 1.3480 in Friday’s early Asian session.
Traders believe more USD weakness is coming if the next Fed Chair opts for deeper interest-rate cuts as anticipated.
The BoE expects rates to continue on a gradual downward path, but each subsequent cut will be a "closer call."

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3480 during the early Asian session on Friday. Expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Pound Sterling (GBP). Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson is set to speak later on the weekend.

The Greenback ended 2025 with the sharpest annual decline in eight years. With at least two rate reductions priced in for this year, the Fed's policy path diverges from the United Kingdom (UK), dimming the USD's appeal. Financial markets are pricing in nearly a 15.0% chance the Fed will cut interest rates at its next meeting in January, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Furthermore, anticipations that US President Donald Trump will name a dovish successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends this year, might contribute to the USD’s downside. Trump stated that he expects the next Fed Chairman to keep interest rates low and never “disagree” with him. The comments are likely to heighten concerns among investors and policymakers about Fed independence.

On the other hand, the Bank of England (BoE) expects rates to continue on a gradual downward path, which provides some support to the Cable. The UK central bank reduced interest rates from 4.0% to 3.75% at its December policy meeting, the lowest level in nearly three years. Governor Andrew Bailey said during the press conference that rates are likely to continue on a gradual downward path, but "how much further we go becomes a closer call" with each cut.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

GBP/USD hovers around 1.3450 amid renewed Mideast tensions

GBP/USD remains defensive around 1.3450 in the European session on Friday, undermined by a broadly resilient US Dollar. The Middle East uncertainty is back in play, keeping the haven demand for the Greenback intact ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release.

EUR/USD flatlines above 1.1500 ahead of US NFP

EUR/USD keeps its range above 1.1500 in European trading on Friday, as the US Dollar consolidates the recent recovery, following renewed tensions in the Middle East and on the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Traders now eagerly await the July US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for a clear directional impetus.

How Wall Street rigs the game [Video]

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by Peter Antico and Sean Stone to discuss the Paradigm of Money - an in-depth expose of financial market corruption, from naked shorting to the two-tier system that protects Wall Street.

US Senate delays Clarity Act vote – Cardano and LayerZero lead gains

Bitcoin price holds steady above $64,000 with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $64,637 capping gains. The US Senate has delayed the floor vote for the Crypto Clarity Act after the summer recess, starting Monday. Cardano and LayerZero hold gains from the previous day's rebound, outperforming top altcoins over the last 24 hours.

July’s US employment report to shake the markets

USD edged higher yesterday, as media reports pointed towards a potential rate hike by the Fed in September. Today, we focus on the release of July’s US employment report. The NFP figure is expected to rise, and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.