ASEAN: Tariff reset reshapes export outlook – DBS

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

DBS Group Research economists Radhika Rao and Chua Han Teng note that the US court ruling invalidates unilateral IEEPA tariffs on ASEAN-6, shifting them to MFN plus a 15% Section 122 levy until July 2026. Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia see lower effective rates, while Singapore’s rises slightly but remains lowest. The bank keeps its regional economic projections unchanged.

IEEPA reversal and Section 122 impact

"Firstly, unilateral tariffs imposed by the US on the region under the IEEPA are likely to be deemed invalid."

"These countries will now face their respective MFN rates plus a global 15% tariff under Section 122, which will be in effect until July 2026, but could face legal hurdles in the interim, resulting in continued trade policy uncertainty."

"The blanket 15% rate will benefit Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia by reducing their effective rates by ~1.7 to 3.2 percentage points (pp) but raise the rate on Singapore by ~1.1pp, according to Global Trade Alert."

"Despite this, the effective tariff rate on Singapore will be the lowest in the ASEAN-6 bloc."

"Sector-specific tariffs under Section 232 will remain in place, while exemptions covering semiconductors, non-branded pharma etc. will continue to apply."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD remains slightly bid near 1.3300

GBP/USD now advances marginally and manages to dispute the 1.3300 region on Tuesday. Indeed, Cable regains some balance on the back of the lacklustre performance of the Greenback, all preceding the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday and the BoE’s gathering on Thursday.

EUR/USD recedes from tops, back below 1.1400

EUR/USD manages to set aside part of the recent weakness and clinches decent gains on Tuesday. Indeed, spot keeps the trade below the 1.1400 mark amid acceptable losses in the US Dollar, all following rising optimism of a US-Iran deal and steady caution prior to the FOMC gathering on Wednesday.

Gold bounces on poor US data

Gold remains under marked downside pressure on Tuesday, although the $4,000 zone per troy ounce emerges as a decent support for now. The precious metal’s pullback comes despite the modest losses in the US Dollar in a context of easing geopolitical tensions ahead of the key Fed event on Wednesday.

XRP falls toward $1.00 despite dwindling exchange reserves

Ripple (XRP) continues to trade under increasing pressure on Tuesday. This marks the second consecutive day of declines, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment as investors appear to shift gears in anticipation of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

Warning signs in the stock market: Is this the top, or just a very short fuse?

Overnight, South Korea's Kospi fell more than 10%, SK Hynix lost close to 15% and Samsung Electronics lost 13%. Into that, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures traded up around 1% on paint and soft drinks, and S&P 500 futures sat roughly flat. An index that absorbs a memory-chip panic and prints nothing is not a calm market.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.