GBP/USD closes below 100-day MA for first since Oct. 9, eyes UK PMI

  • GBP/USD registers first daily close under the 100-day MA since October. 
  • Chances of disorderly UK exit from the EU are rising. 
  • Risk reversals are reporting bearish bias with a negative print. 
  • A big beat on the UK PMI is needed to weaken bearish pressures. 

GBP/USD closed below the 100-day moving average (MA) on Thursday, its first daily close below the widely-tracked major average support in 4.5 months. 

So far, however, the violation of the long-term MA support has failed to draw strong offers. The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.2892, representing marginal gains on the day, having hit a three-month low of 1.2849 on Thursday.

Focus on UK PMI

The preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb) is forecasted to print at 49.7, indicating a contraction in the activity following January's neutral reading of 50.00. The selling interest around the British Pound will likely gather steam if the PMI number prints below estimates. 

Note that the chances of disorderly UK exit from the European Union have increased to 25% from 20% seen in January, according to Reuters poll. As a result, Pound is unlikely to find takers, unless the PMI betters expectations by a big margin and the broader market sentiment improves, weakening the haven demand for the US treasuries. The US 30-year yield fell to 1.95% on Thursday, the lowest level since September. 

Risk reversals show put bias

One-month risk reversals, a gauge of calls to puts on the British Pound, fell to -0.225 on Thursday, having topped out at 0.00 recently. The slide represents the rise in the premium claimed by the put options, a sign the investors have added bets to position for losses in Sterling. 

Technical levels


Today last price 1.2893
Today Daily Change 0.0011
Today Daily Change % 0.09
Today daily open 1.2882
Daily SMA20 1.3001
Daily SMA50 1.3053
Daily SMA100 1.2955
Daily SMA200 1.2694
Previous Daily High 1.293
Previous Daily Low 1.2849
Previous Weekly High 1.307
Previous Weekly Low 1.2872
Previous Monthly High 1.3281
Previous Monthly Low 1.2954
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.288
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2899
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2844
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2806
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2763
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2925
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2968
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3006



Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD recaptures 1.1300 amid falling yields, EZ inflation eyed

EUR/USD is trading above 1.1300, extending the upside amid a renewed risk-off wave. The US dollar tracks the sell-off in the Treasury yields, shrugging off Moderna Inc.'s warning against the Omicron covid variant. Eurozone inflation, Powell’s testimony awaited.


GBP/USD rebound appears capped near 1.3330 amid risk-aversion

GBP/USD is making a minor recovery attempt above 1.3300 on Tuesday, as the US dollar turns south again in tandem with the Treasury yields. Renewed Omicron covid variant fears damp the market mood as well as the pound. Focus on covid updates, US data and Powell.


Gold inches back closer to $1,800 amid Omicron variant fears

Gold picks up bids to refresh intraday high. Risk appetite improves as market players reassess covid variant fears. Policymakers, experts reject concerns over the need for major lockdowns, readiness to have vaccines sooner.

Gold News

XRP price on edge of cliff as Ripple faces imminent collapse

XRP price followed the rest of the cryptocurrency market lower over the weekend. The US Thanksgiving holiday gave cryptocurrency traders and investors some early Black Friday deals, but downside risks remain.

Read more

Cyber Monday 2021 Discounts!

Glued to your trading screen on Cyber Monday? Upgrade your skills by signing up for FXStreet’s Premium service, offered at a discount of up to 50%. Fellow traders have already taken advantage of Black Friday profits. What about you? 

Subscribe now!