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GBP/USD choppy, directionless in low 1.3500s despite better risk appetite, strong UK wage growth figures

  • GBP/USD has been choppy on Tuesday, swinging around the lower 1.3500s, with GBP subdued despite better risk appetite.
  • Cable looks to have formed a descending triangle in recent weeks, implying a potential downside breakout towards recent sub-1.3400 lows.

GBP/USD has seen choppy, two-way trading conditions on Tuesday, swinging between session highs in the 1.3560s and sub-1.3500 session lows as the pair, for the most part, stuck to recent intra-day ranges. Despite a decent rebound in global equity markets on signs of easing Russia/Ukraine tensions and despite hotter than expected December UK wage growth figures which economists said bolsters the case for BoE tightening, GBP has been lackluster. At current levels near 1.3525, GBP/USD trades flat on the day.

Cable looks to have formed a descending triangle in recent weeks and the pair seemingly did not have enough conviction to mount a meaningful bullish breakout. Bearish technicians thus pay hope that GBP/USD breaks below support in the 1.3500 area and press lower towards last month’s sub-1.3400 lows. While easing geopolitical tensions may have knocked the US dollar in the short-term amid a weakened safe-haven bid, Producer Price Inflation figures on Tuesday came in hotter than expected, strengthening the argument of hawkish Fed policymakers like James Bullard.

Bullard has called for 100bps of tightening by July 1, meaning he likely supports a 50bps move in March. Other Fed policymakers have pushed back against this idea and said they would prefer a more measured policy shift. But markets seem to think the hawks will win this debate, with CME’s Fed Watch tool suggesting a roughly 60% chance of a 50bps hike in March versus just 25% one week ago (prior to the hot January Consumer Price Inflation report).

Looking ahead to the rest of the week, geopolitics will of course remain key to watch, but there is also plenty of US/UK data for GBP/USD traders to sink their teeth into. UK January CPI and US January Retail Sales figures and the Fed minutes of the last meeting are out on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday are then packed with Fed speak, while UK January Retail Sales figures are out on Friday.

GBP/Usd

Overview
Today last price1.3522
Today Daily Change-0.0002
Today Daily Change %-0.01
Today daily open1.3524
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.3525
Daily SMA501.3468
Daily SMA1001.3503
Daily SMA2001.37
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.3572
Previous Daily Low1.3495
Previous Weekly High1.3644
Previous Weekly Low1.3491
Previous Monthly High1.3749
Previous Monthly Low1.3358
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.3524
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.3543
Daily Pivot Point S11.3488
Daily Pivot Point S21.3453
Daily Pivot Point S31.3411
Daily Pivot Point R11.3565
Daily Pivot Point R21.3607
Daily Pivot Point R31.3643

Author

Joel Frank

Joel Frank

Independent Analyst

Joel Frank is an economics graduate from the University of Birmingham and has worked as a full-time financial market analyst since 2018, specialising in the coverage of how developments in the global economy impact financial asset

More from Joel Frank
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