GBP to rally on BOE as short-term rates reprice – Barclays

Barclay’s analysts offer their thoughts on the BOE monetary policy outcome and its impact on the pound, noting that markets is already focused on the next move.

Key Quotes:

“A 25bp rate hike tomorrow is widely expected and priced but the focus of the market is already on the next move.

The MPC is likely to consider that the recent mix of data as supportive of a November hike, and communicate on the need for further hikes. While we do not expect the data over coming months to be strong enough to support further rate hikes in 2018, we think the MPC will attempt to present an incrementally more hawkish stance, if only to provide further support to the currency.

FX: We expect GBP to rally following the BoE policy meeting, as short-term rates reprice. A greater than expected steepening of the "ribbon" graph, depicting the probability of inflation above target, would support the currency. A vote split different from 7-2 introduces two-sided risk for the currency, in our view, but Governor Carney likely will moderate the signal value of a different split during the press conference.

 Gilts: The key issue will be the extent to which the MPC is willing to signal the beginning of a tightening cycle as the market only prices one hike for 2018 and less than one cumulatively priced for 2019-20. Should the IR profiles signal a persistent overshoot of inflation versus target and continued upside risk, the Committee may signal that this week's expected hike will be followed by more than the market currently prices, so placing the money market curve under bear steepening pressure.

UK Inflation: We see a hawkish BoE as posing downside risks to 5y5y UK RPI swaps given that they still trade at a ~40bp premium to the inflation target.“