Forex Today: USD back in the red in Asia, a light calendar ahead

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

A quiet Asian affair on the final trading day of the week, as dust settles over the scandals and political uncertainty surrounding the US political scenario, especially after the Comey video story. However, the greenback failed to sustain the flash rebound against its major rivals and returned to the red zone in Asia, as risk sentiment improved somewhat. Meanwhile, USD/JPY witnessed two-way business, but managed to keep the 111 handle, with markets digest the Trump budget proposal likely to be released next Tuesday.

Looking ahead, we have no relevant economic data on the cards today, except for the Eurozone current account data, UK CBI industrial orders and Canadian datasets – CPI and retail sales. Besides, speech from St. Louis Fed President Bullard takes center stage in the NA session. Next week, the US politics will drive the sentiment, with Comey’s testimony and Trump’s Budget release due on the cards.

Main topics in Asia

US Navy is moving aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan to the Korean Peninsula – CNN

Two defense officials told CNN that the navy is moving the USS Ronald Reagan to the Korean Peninsula, where it will conduct dual-carrier training drills with the USS Carl Vinson.

Two Chinese Su-30 fighter jets intercepts US Air Force plane over Yellow Sea - CNN

CNN News is out with latest headlines covering yet another geo-political issue, this time concerning China-US relationship.

Trump’s budget will include discretionary spending cuts to education, housing, environment programs

Additional headlines crossing the wires from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on Trump’s budget proposal, which will be released next Tuesday.

Reports of BOJ ETFs buying lifts Nikkei higher

The recovery is mainly attributed to the latest headlines, citing that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is said to be buying ETFs of the Japanese stocks.

Key Focus ahead

Eurozone: Consumer confidence to show a rise to -3.1 in May – Danske Bank

The research team at Danske Bank explains that today is another quiet day in terms of data releases and Euro area consumer confidence is the only market moving economic release for the day.

USD/JPY: expect yen to remain underpinned ahead of Comey testimony next week?

The yen can continue to benefit from risk off political risk as the second best performer in the G10's bar the CHF that was the top performer this week.

EURUSD: Prefer to sell rallies – Possible range trade

In the short term though, the 4 hour momentum indicators are turning lower after having reached overbought extremes, so I would be surprised to take out 1.1170 today and further consolidation/correction would seem probable.

USD/CAD at a critical juncture amid Trump concerns, Canadian data, OPEC talks

USD/CAD has fluctuated around the key 1.3600 price level for the past three days as a weakened US dollar and volatile crude oil prices affecting the Canadian dollar have pushed and pulled on the currency pair.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Thursday, May 18
17:00	EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech
17:15	USD FOMC Member Mester speech
21:00	CLP BCCH Interest Rate	2.50%		2.75%
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth			-0.1%
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth (YoY)			4.2%
22:45	NZD Visitor Arrivals (YoY)	21.5%		-0.2%
Friday, May 19
24h	TRY Commemoration of Ataturk, Youth and Sports Day
04:30	EUR Consumer Confidence Adj	23		26
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)	3.4%	3.2%	3.1%
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%
08:00	DKK Consumer Confidence		7.6	7.4
08:00	HUF Gross Wages (YoY)			10.7%
08:00	EUR Current Account s.a		€32.3B	€37.9B
08:00	EUR Current Account n.s.a			€27.9B
08:30	HKD Unemployment rate			3.2%
09:00	EUR Unemployment Rate			8%
10:00	GBP CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM)		4	4
11:00	RUB Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.3%
11:00	RUB Producer Price Index (YoY)			11.3%
11:00	RUB Industrial Output			0.8%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$375.72B
12:00	PLN Retail Sales (YoY)		8.9%	9.7%
12:00	PLN Industrial Output (YoY)		2.35%	11.10%
12:00	PLN Producer Price Index (YoY)		4.5%	4.7%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales (MoM)		0.4%	-0.6%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)		0.2%	-0.1%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.5%	0.2%
12:30	CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)		1.4%	1.3%
12:30	CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM)			0.3%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)			0.3%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.7%	1.6%
13:15	USD Fed's Bullard speech
14:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		-3.0	-3.6
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			712
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$150K
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$85.1K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			328.8K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-46.8K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-36.3K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€22.4K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$25.8K
Sunday, May 21
24h	CLP Navy Day
23:01	GBP Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)			1.1%
23:01	GBP Rightmove House Price Index (YoY)			2.2%
23:50	JPY Exports (YoY)		7.8%	12.0%
23:50	JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance			¥172.202B
23:50	JPY Imports (YoY)		14.8%	15.8%
23:50	JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total		¥520.7B	¥614.7B
Monday, May 22
24h	CAD Victoria Day
07:00	DKK Retail Sales (YoY)			2.6%
08:00	MXN Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.7%
08:00	MXN Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.4%
08:00	EUR Current Account (YoY)			€-0.937B
08:00	RUB Unemployment Rate			5.4%
n/a	EUR German Buba Monthly Report
12:30	USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index			0.08
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction			0.905%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction			1.02%
Tuesday, May 23
00:30	JPY Nikkei Manufacturing PMI			52.7
04:30	JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM)			0.7%
05:00	SGD Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.7
06:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ)		0.6%	0.6%
06:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)			1.7%
06:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY)			1.7%
06:00	CHF Imports (MoM)			16,495M
06:00	CHF Trade Balance			3.101M
06:00	CHF Exports (MoM)			19,596M
06:00	EUR Business Climate			108
07:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI			55.1
07:00	EUR Markit Services PMI			56.7
07:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite			56.6
07:30	EUR Markit Services PMI		55.5	55.4
07:30	EUR Markit PMI Composite			56.7
07:30	SEK Unemployment Rate			6.8%
07:55	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		58.0	58.2
08:00	EUR IFO - Current Assessment		121.2	121.1
08:00	EUR IFO - Expectations		105.8	105.2
08:00	EUR IFO - Business Climate		113.1	112.9
08:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		56.7	56.7
08:00	EUR Markit Services PMI		56.5	56.4
08:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite		56.8	56.8
08:30	GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing			£4.365B
08:30	HKD Consumer Price Index			0.5%
09:00	EUR EU Financial Stability Review
10:00	GBP Inflation Report Hearings
11:00	GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM)			38%
11:30	TRY Manufacturing Confidence			111.2
11:30	TRY Capacity Utilization			78.4%
12:00	BRL Mid-month Inflation			0.21%
12:00	HUF MNB Interest Rate Decision			0.9%
12:30	CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM)			-0.2%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			2.4%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			-1.1%
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (YoY)			3.6%
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (MoM)			2.4%
13:30	BRL Current Account
13:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI		53.0	52.8
13:45	USD Markit PMI Composite			53.2
13:45	USD Markit Services PMI		53.0	53.1
14:00	USD New Home Sales (MoM)		0.611M	0.621M
14:00	USD New Home Sales Change (MoM)			5.8%
14:00	USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index			20
15:30	USD 52-Week Bill auction			1.06%
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			0.695%
17:00	USD 2-Year Note Auction			1.28%
19:00	ARS Trade Balance (MoM)			$-941M
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			0.882M
22:45	NZD Exports			$4.65B
22:45	NZD Trade Balance (YoY)			$-3.67B
22:45	NZD Imports			$4.31B
22:45	NZD Trade Balance (MoM)			$332M
Wednesday, May 24
00:30	AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM)			0.1%
01:30	AUD Construction Work Done		-0.2%	-0.2%
06:00	EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey		10.2	10.2
06:00	EUR Unemployment Rate			8.7%
06:00	NOK Labour Force Survey			4.3%
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			4.8%
07:00	EUR Industrial Production (YoY)			3.1%
07:00	SEK Consumer Confidence (MoM)			103.4
07:15	CHF Industrial Production (YoY)			-3.3%
07:15	CHF Industrial Production (QoQ)			-1.2%
07:30	SEK Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.1%
07:30	SEK Producer Price Index (YoY)			6.5%
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			6.1%
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.6%
09:00	EUR Trade Balance non-EU			€4.14B
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			-4.1%
11:30	INR M3 Money Supply
13:00	USD Housing Price Index (MoM)			0.8%
13:00	MXN 1st half-month Core Inflation			0.26%
13:00	MXN 1st half-month Inflation			-0.15%
13:00	EUR Leading Indicator			-0.8
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)		5.68M	5.71M
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)			4.4%
14:00	CAD BOC Rate Statement
14:00	CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision		0.5%	0.5%
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			-1.753M
17:00	USD 5-Year Note Auction			1.875%
18:00	USD FOMC Minutes
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥372.2B
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥1,821.2B
Thursday, May 25
24h	USD OPEC meeting
24h	EUR Ascension Day
24h	IDR Ascension Day
24h	DKK Ascension Day
n/a	EUR Ascension Day
24h	EUR Ascension Day
24h	EUR Ascension Day
24h	ISK Ascension Day
24h	ARS May Revolution
24h	EUR Ascension Day
24h	CHF Ascension Day
24h	NOK Ascension Day
24h	SEK Ascension Day
24h	EUR Ascension Day
02:00	NZD Budget Release
04:00	USD Fed's Bullard speech
04:30	EUR Consumer Confidence Adj			23
05:00	KRW BoK Interest Rate Decision			1.25%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			3%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.7%
08:00	EUR Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM)			2%
08:00	EUR Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY)			4.6%
08:00	EUR Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY)			7.8%
08:00	EUR Industrial Orders s.a (MoM)			5.3%
08:00	PLN Unemployment (MoM)			8.1%
08:00	PLN Unemployment (MoM)
08:30	GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals			41.1K
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.3%
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.1%
08:30	GBP Index of Services (3M/3M)			0.5%
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (YoY)			5.2%
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
09:30	GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ)			-0.9%
09:30	GBP Total Business Investment (YoY)			-0.9%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.898M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			232K
12:30	USD Wholesale Inventories			0.2%
12:30	USD Goods Trade Balance			$-65B
13:00	MXN Trade Balance s/a, $
13:00	MXN Trade Balance, $			$-0.183B
13:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.28%
13:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.17%
14:00	MXN Current Account, $ (QoQ)			$-3.363M
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			68B
15:00	USD Kansas Fed manufacturing activity			12
17:00	USD 7-Year Note Auction			2.084%
21:00	ZAR Business Confidence Index			94.9
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)			-0.1%
23:30	JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)			-0.1%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)			-0.1%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY)			-0.1%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)			0.2%
23:30	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)		0.4%	0.2%
23:50	JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY)			0.8%
Friday, May 26
00:00	SGD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			-1.9%
00:00	SGD Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.5%

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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