Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 19:
Risk remains tepid at the start of the European session, as the Asian equities traded mixed, failing to benefit from the Wall Street rally. The US Dollar consolidates weekly gains near two-month highs, tracking the sluggish performance in the US Treasury yields across the curve.
The optimism around a potential US debt ceiling deal was faded by a Reuters report that cited, “the small but powerful Republican faction warned this week that they could try to block any agreement to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling from passing the House of Representatives if the accord does not contain ‘robust’ federal spending cuts.”
Additionally, fresh US-Sino tensions over Taiwan are keeping traders cautious. US Trade Representative's (USTR) office announced late Thursday, “the US and Taiwan reached agreement on the first part of their ‘21st Century’ trade initiative, covering customs and border procedures, regulatory practices, and small business.” The US-Taiwan agreement clouds the outlook for a visit to the US next week by a Chinese commerce official.
The US stock futures, however, are adding 0.15% on the day, as markets continue to remain hopeful over a debt ceiling deal by Sunday when Biden and McCarthy resume talks.
Despite a risk-on market profile, the US Dollar extended its three-day upsurge on Thursday, courtesy of the hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and rising bets of a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike in June. Markets are now pricing a 36% probability of a 25 bps June rate hike vs. a mere 10% chance seen at the start of this week.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that data at this time does not support skipping an interest rate hike in the June meeting. Fed Governor Philip Jefferson noted that inflation remains too high whereas St Louis Fed President James Bullard advocated higher rates once again, suggesting that they are insurance against inflation.
Looking ahead, markets stay focussed on headlines concerning the US debt ceiling and speeches by central banks’ officials, in the absence of top-tier economic data releases on both sides of the Atlantic. Fed Chair Jereme Powell’s speech will hog the limelight while the end-of-the-week flows will likely remain in play.
EUR/USD is picking up fresh bids to resume the rebound toward 1.0800 early Europe, as the US Dollar corrects in tandem with the US Treasury bond yields. Eurostoxx futures are up 0.05%, at the moment. Citing sources, Bloomberg reported that the European Central Bank (ECB) is said to step up scrutiny of bank liquidity and may raise requirements.
GBP/USD is recapturing 1.2400, having briefly dipped below the latter. Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Jonathan Haskel is due to give a speech on how to measure productivity at the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence Conference on economic measurement 2023 ‘New directions in the measurement of productivity: Integrating concepts and data at 09:45 GMT.
USD/JPY is seeing a sharp correction toward 138.00, as the Yen is recovering ground after inflation in Japan accelerated again in April, with the core Consumer Price Index rising 3.4% from a year earlier. Core-core CPI, which strips away energy and fresh food prices, climbed 4.1%, reaching the highest since September 1981.
AUD/USD is holding its recovery gains near 0.6650, shrugging off resurfacing US-Sino tensions. The US and Taiwan reached an agreement on the first part of their ‘21st Century’ trade initiative, covering customs and border procedures, regulatory practices, and small business. The US-Taiwan agreement clouds the outlook for a visit to the US next week by a Chinese commerce official, somewhat weighing on investors’ sentiment.
USD/CAD is trading under pressure below 1.3500 amid a pullback in the US Dollar and higher WTI prices.
Gold price is attempting a dead cat bounce to test $1,970, looking to recapture the critical 50-Daily Moving Average (DMA) support-turned-resistance at $1,985.
Cryptocurrencies are trading listlessly, with Bitcoin sidelined below $27,000 while Ethereum is challenging the $1,800 mark.
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