Forex Today: Trump offers reprieve to Asia, focus shifts to Eurozone GDP, German CPI

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex Today saw a major turnaround in tandem with the risk sentiment, as the US President Trump’s optimistic comments offered a fresh breath of life in the Asian markets. The Asian equities staged a comeback, led by China stocks and lift the demand for the risk assets alongside.

Hence, the higher-yielding currencies such as the Antipodeans, pound shot higher at the expense of the safe-havens such as the Yen, US dollar and the Swiss Franc. The Euro and CAD also traded firmer heading into the Eurozone GDP figures and BOC Governor Poloz’s speech due later on Tuesday. Amongst the commodities, gold and oil prices traded modestly flat while copper prices traded weaker below 2.75 level.

Main Topics in Asia

US steel tariffs spark a flurry of WTO cases - Reuters

Japan's Unemployment Rate ticks down to 2.3%

Australian Building Permits better than expected, +3.3% for September

Japan Fin Min Aso: Monetary easing has many positive effects

PBOC sets CNY fix at weakest since May 2008, skips OMO for third straight day

RBA's Bullock: transition to higher capital levels coming to an end for major banks

US tax cut fails to boost investment: Xinhua

Asian stocks see a late-day rally, China hits the green as investors return to the fold

Key Focus Ahead

We have a busy EUR macro calendar, kicking-off with the Swiss KOF leading indicator at 0800 GMT, followed by the German employment data and Italy’s Q3 GDP figures at 0900 GMT, which will be closely eyed, given the Italian budget woes. Also, in focus remains the Eurozone Q3 flash GDP estimate due at 1000 GMT that is seen decelerating to 1.8% on an annualized basis. At the same, the Eurozone confidence numbers will be released, keeping the EUR traders on their toes heading into the German prelim CPI release at 1300 GMT. Meanwhile, from the UK docket, the CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM) for Oct will drop in at 1100 GMT.

The NA session is a thin showing data-wise, as the US docket has no first-tier macro news to offer. However, the BOC Governor Poloz speech at 1930 GMT will draw some attention ahead of the US API weekly crude stocks data slated for release at 2030 GMT. Apart from the data, the US-China trade-related headlines and European political developments will continue to drive the fx markets today.

EUR/USD: 5-day EMA is a key resistance, focus on Eurozone GDP & German CPI

An above-forecast German CPI and upbeat Eurozone GDP could boost demand for the EUR. However, the prospects of a convincing move above the 5-day EMA would drop sharply if the Italy-German yield spread spikes, representing rising concerns about Italy's budget.

GBP/USD: Hammond speech does little to bolster bulls, markets remain focused on Brexit

Tuesday is a data-light day for the Sterling, leaving investors to fret over the lack of momentum on Brexit proceedings, through knock-on volatility could be expected towards the London midday when Europe sees GDP figures at 10:00 GMT.

Will the BOJ Bring a Trick or a Treat for GBP/JPY?

Kicking off the busy turn-of-the-month week for economic data, the Bank of Japan will conclude its monetary policy meeting early in Wednesday’s Asian session.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Monday, Oct 29
24h	TRY Republic Day
24h	EUR October Holiday (Halloween)
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction	2.305%		2.300%
n/a	USD Loan Officer Survey
21:00	KRW BOK Manufacturing BSI	74		78
23:30	JPY Jobs/applicants ratio	1.64	1.63	1.63
23:30	JPY Unemployment Rate	2.3%	2.4%	2.4%
Tuesday, Oct 30
00:30	AUD Building Permits (YoY)	-14.1%		-13.6%
00:30	AUD Building Permits (MoM)	3.3%	3.0%	-9.1% Revised from -9.4%
02:10	AUD RBA Assistant Governor Bullock Speech
06:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.5%	0.2%
07:00	DKK Industrial Outlook			-1
07:00	NOK Retail Sales		0.2%	0.6%
07:45	EUR Consumer Spending (MoM)		-0.4%	0.8%
08:00	EUR HICP (YoY)		2.2%	2.3%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.9%	0.2%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.3%	2.3%
08:00	EUR HICP (MoM)		0.6%	0.6%
08:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			0.3%
08:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
08:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			3.4%
08:00	HUF Unemployment Rate (3M)			3.7%
08:00	CHF KOF Leading Indicator		100.6	102.2
08:55	EUR Unemployment Change		-12K	-23K
08:55	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a.		5.1%	5.1%
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		0.9%	1.2%
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.1%	0.2%
09:30	ZAR Unemployment Total			6.1M
09:30	ZAR Unemployment Rate (%)			27.2%
09:30	EUR Business Confidence			2.4
09:30	EUR Consumer Confidence			-1.4
10:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		115	116
10:00	EUR Business Confidence		104.8	105.7
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			2.9%
10:00	BRL Inflation Index/IGP-M		0.90%	1.52%
10:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			7.4%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			2.6%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)			-3.3%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)		1.8%	2.1%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)		0.4%	0.4%
10:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		-2.7	-2.7
10:00	EUR Services Sentiment		14.0	14.6
10:00	EUR Industrial Confidence		3.8	4.7
10:00	EUR Business Climate		1.14	1.21
10:00	EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator		110.0	110.9
11:00	BRL Unemployment Rate		11.9%	12.1%
11:00	GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM)		20%	23%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.35%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			0%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			5.5%
13:00	USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)		5.8%	5.9%
13:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.4%	2.3%
13:00	EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)		0.1%	0.4%
13:00	EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)		2.3%	2.2%
13:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.4%
14:00	MXN Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.6%
14:00	MXN Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			-0.2%
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			2.18%
19:00	MXN Fiscal Balance, pesos			-31.45B
19:30	CAD BoC Governor Poloz Speech
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			9.88M
21:45	NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM)			7.8%
23:00	KRW Industrial Output Growth		-0.5%	1.4%
23:00	KRW Service Sector Output			0.1%
23:00	KRW Industrial Output (YoY)		-3.6%	2.5%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)			0.2%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)		-0.3%	0.2%
Wednesday, Oct 31
24h	EUR Day of Reformation
00:00	NZD ANZ Activity Outlook			7.8%
00:00	NZD ANZ Business Confidence			-38.3
00:01	GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence		-10	-9
00:01	GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY)			0.2%
00:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY)			4.5%
00:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM)		0.4%	0.5%
00:30	AUD RBA trimmed mean CPI (QoQ)		0.4%	0.5%
00:30	AUD Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.9%	2.1%
00:30	AUD RBA trimmed mean CPI (YoY)		1.9%	1.9%
00:30	AUD Consumer Price Index (QoQ)		0.4%	0.4%
01:00	CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI		50.7	50.8
01:00	CNY Non-manufacturing PMI		54.9	54.9
n/a	JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
n/a	JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision			-0.1%
n/a	JPY BoJ outlook report
n/a	JPY BoJ Press Conference
05:00	PEN Inflation
05:00	JPY Annualized Housing Starts			0.957M
05:00	JPY Housing Starts (YoY)		-0.7%	1.6%
05:00	JPY Construction Orders (YoY)			0.5%
05:00	JPY Consumer Confidence Index		43.4	43.4
07:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)		0.5%	-0.1%
07:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)		1.0%	1.6%
07:00	TRY Trade Balance			-2.42B
07:00	TRY Foreign Arrivals			15.6%
07:00	TRY Economic confidence index			71
07:00	DKK Unemployment Rate			3.2%
07:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)			2.5%
07:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM)			-0.2%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ)		0.6%	0.6%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (YoY)		2.8%	2.7%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.6%	0.6%
08:00	HUF Producer Price Index (YoY)			8.1%
09:00	EUR Unemployment		9.9%	9.7%
09:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.2%
09:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.9%	1.8%
09:00	EUR Current Account Balance			€0.11B
09:00	CHF ZEW Survey - Expectations			-30.8
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.7%	1.4%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)		1.8%	1.5%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)		0.3%	1.7%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	-0.5%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			2.5%
10:00	INR Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR			5,912.91B
10:00	EUR Unemployment Rate		8.1%	8.1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)		1.0%	0.9%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.2%	2.1%
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			4.9%
11:30	INR Infrastructure Output (YoY)			4.2%
12:00	CLP Industrial Production (YoY)			4%
12:00	ZAR Trade Balance (in Rands)		5.00B	8.79B
12:15	USD ADP Employment Change		189K	230K
12:30	USD Employment cost index		0.7%	0.6%
12:30	CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM)			-0.5%
12:30	CAD Raw Material Price Index		-1.5%	-4.6%
12:30	CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM)			0.2%
13:00	CLP Unemployment rate		7.2%	7.3%
13:45	USD Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index		60.5	60.4
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			6.35M
15:00	COP National Jobless Rate		9.0%	9.2%
17:00	BRL Interest Rate Decision		6.5%	6.5%
17:15	CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speech
19:00	ARS Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY)			-5.6%
20:15	CAD BoC Governor Poloz Speech
21:30	AUD AiG Performance of Mfg Index			59
23:00	KRW Consumer Price Index Growth			0.7%
23:00	KRW Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY)			1.9%
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥76.5B
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥8.1B
Thursday, Nov 01
24h	EUR All Saints Day
24h	CLP All Saints Day
24h	PLN All Saints Day
24h	EUR All Saints' Day
00:00	KRW Trade Balance			$9.57B
24h	EUR All Saints Day
24h	EUR All Saints' Day
24h	EUR All Saints Day
24h	HUF All Saints Day
24h	EUR All Saints Day
00:30	KRW Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI			51.3
00:30	AUD Import Price Index (QoQ)			3.2%
00:30	AUD Export Price Index (QoQ)			1.9%
00:30	AUD Imports			0%
00:30	AUD Exports			1%
00:30	AUD Trade Balance		1,700M	1,604M
01:45	CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI		49.9	50.0
04:00	IDR Inflation (MoM)			-0.18%
04:00	IDR Core Inflation (YoY)			2.82%
04:00	IDR Inflation (YoY)			2.88%
05:30	AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY)			4.8%
06:00	EUR Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing			56.3
06:00	RUB HSBC Manufacturing PMI			50
06:45	CHF SECO Consumer Climate (3m)		-8	-7
07:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)		0.2%	0.3%
07:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)		1.9%	2.0%
07:30	SEK Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM)			55.2
n/a	EUR Unemployment Rate			6.9%
n/a	EUR Unemployment			279.9K
08:15	CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.1%	1.0%
08:15	CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.1%
08:30	HKD Retail Sales			9.5%
08:30	CZK Markit PMI			53.4
08:30	CHF SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index		58.5	59.7
09:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI			53.6
09:30	GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI		53.0	53.8
11:00	BRL Industrial Output (MoM)		-0.8%	-0.3%
11:00	BRL Industrial Output (YoY)		-0.4%	2.0%
11:30	USD Challenger Job Cuts			55.285K
12:00	ZAR Total New Vehicle Sales			49.67
12:00	GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision		0.75%	0.75%
12:00	GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility		£435B	£435B
12:00	GBP Monetary Policy Summary
12:00	GBP Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
12:00	GBP BOE MPC Vote Unchanged		9	9
12:00	GBP BOE MPC Vote Cut		0	0
12:00	GBP BOE MPC Vote Hike		0	0
12:00	GBP Bank of England Minutes
12:00	CZK CNB Interest Rate Decision		1.5%	1.5%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.636M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		215K	215K
12:30	USD Unit Labor Costs		1.2%	-1.0%
12:30	USD Nonfarm Productivity		2.0%	2.9%
12:30	GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech
13:00	BRL HSBC PMI Manufacturing			50.9
13:00	CZK Budget Balance			16.77B
13:30	CAD Markit Manufacturing PMI			54.8
13:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI		55.9	55.9
14:00	USD ISM Prices Paid		67.0	66.9
14:00	USD ISM Manufacturing PMI		59.0	59.8
14:00	USD Construction Spending (MoM)		0.1%	0.1%
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			58B
18:00	BRL Trade Balance			4.971B
19:30	USD Total Vehicle Sales		17.10M	17.44M
20:00	ARS Tax Revenue (MoM)			295.82B
23:50	JPY Monetary Base (YoY)		6.2%	5.9%
Friday, Nov 02
24h	BRL All Souls Day
00:30	AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
00:30	AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ)		0.2%	0.3%
00:30	AUD Producer Price Index (YoY)			1.5%
07:00	EUR Import Price Index (YoY)		4.6%	4.8%
07:00	EUR Import Price Index (MoM)		0.6%	0.0%
07:45	EUR Budget			€-97.3B
08:00	PLN Purchasing Manager Index			50.5
08:15	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		50.8	51.4
08:15	CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY)		-0.3%	0.3%
08:45	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		49.5	50.0
08:50	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		51.2	51.2
08:55	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		52.3	52.3
09:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		52.1	52.1
09:00	NOK Registered Unemployment s.a		80.50K	81.04K
09:00	NOK Registered Unemployment n.s.a		2.2%	2.3%
09:30	GBP PMI Construction		51.9	52.1
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$393.52B
12:30	USD Average Weekly Hours		34.5	34.5
12:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)		3.1%	2.8%
12:30	USD Nonfarm Payrolls		190K	134K
12:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
12:30	USD Unemployment Rate		3.7%	3.7%
12:30	USD Labor Force Participation Rate			62.7%
12:30	USD Trade Balance		$-53.6B	$-53.2B
12:30	CAD Unemployment Rate		5.9%	5.9%
12:30	CAD Participation rate			65.4%
12:30	CAD Net Change in Employment		10.0K	63.3K
13:00	SGD Purchasing Managers Index			52.4
13:30	CAD Imports			$50.02B
13:30	CAD Exports			$50.55B
13:30	CAD International Merchandise Trade		$0.15B	$0.53B
13:45	USD ISM-NY Business Conditions Index			72.5
14:00	USD Factory Orders (MoM)		0.4%	2.3%
15:00	DKK Currency Reserves			467.9B
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			875
20:00	PEN Trade balance
22:45	NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM)
Saturday, Nov 03
24h	EUR All Saints Day
24h	JPY Culture Day
24h	SEK All Saints Day

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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