Forex Today: Trump offers reprieve to Asia, focus shifts to Eurozone GDP, German CPI


Forex Today saw a major turnaround in tandem with the risk sentiment, as the US President Trump’s optimistic comments offered a fresh breath of life in the Asian markets. The Asian equities staged a comeback, led by China stocks and lift the demand for the risk assets alongside.

Hence, the higher-yielding currencies such as the Antipodeans, pound shot higher at the expense of the safe-havens such as the Yen, US dollar and the Swiss Franc. The Euro and CAD also traded firmer heading into the Eurozone GDP figures and BOC Governor Poloz’s speech due later on Tuesday. Amongst the commodities, gold and oil prices traded modestly flat while copper prices traded weaker below 2.75 level.

Main Topics in Asia

US steel tariffs spark a flurry of WTO cases - Reuters

Japan's Unemployment Rate ticks down to 2.3%

Australian Building Permits better than expected, +3.3% for September

Japan Fin Min Aso: Monetary easing has many positive effects

PBOC sets CNY fix at weakest since May 2008, skips OMO for third straight day

RBA's Bullock: transition to higher capital levels coming to an end for major banks

US tax cut fails to boost investment: Xinhua       

Asian stocks see a late-day rally, China hits the green as investors return to the fold

Key Focus Ahead

We have a busy EUR macro calendar, kicking-off with the Swiss KOF leading indicator at 0800 GMT, followed by the German employment data and Italy’s Q3 GDP figures at 0900 GMT, which will be closely eyed, given the Italian budget woes. Also, in focus remains the Eurozone Q3 flash GDP estimate due at 1000 GMT that is seen decelerating to 1.8% on an annualized basis. At the same, the Eurozone confidence numbers will be released, keeping the EUR traders on their toes heading into the German prelim CPI release at 1300 GMT. Meanwhile, from the UK docket, the CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM) for Oct will drop in at 1100 GMT.

The NA session is a thin showing data-wise, as the US docket has no first-tier macro news to offer. However, the BOC Governor Poloz speech at 1930 GMT will draw some attention ahead of the US API weekly crude stocks data slated for release at 2030 GMT. Apart from the data, the US-China trade-related headlines and European political developments will continue to drive the fx markets today.

EUR/USD: 5-day EMA is a key resistance, focus on Eurozone GDP & German CPI

An above-forecast German CPI and upbeat Eurozone GDP could boost demand for the EUR. However, the prospects of a convincing move above the 5-day EMA would drop sharply if the Italy-German yield spread spikes, representing rising concerns about Italy's budget.  

GBP/USD: Hammond speech does little to bolster bulls, markets remain focused on Brexit

Tuesday is a data-light day for the Sterling, leaving investors to fret over the lack of momentum on Brexit proceedings, through knock-on volatility could be expected towards the London midday when Europe sees GDP figures at 10:00 GMT.

Will the BOJ Bring a Trick or a Treat for GBP/JPY?

Kicking off the busy turn-of-the-month week for economic data, the Bank of Japan will conclude its monetary policy meeting early in Wednesday’s Asian session.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Monday, Oct 29
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
15:30
2.305%
 
2.300%
n/a
 
 
21:00
74
 
78
23:30
1.64
1.63
1.63
23:30
2.3%
2.4%
2.4%
Tuesday, Oct 30
00:30
-14.1%
 
-13.6%
00:30
3.3%
3.0%
-9.1% Revised from -9.4%
02:10
 
 
06:30
 
0.5%
0.2%
07:00
 
 
-1
07:00
 
0.2%
0.6%
07:45
 
-0.4%
0.8%
08:00
 
2.2%
2.3%
08:00
 
0.9%
0.2%
08:00
 
2.3%
2.3%
08:00
 
0.6%
0.6%
08:00
 
 
0.3%
08:00
 
 
0.2%
08:00
 
 
3.4%
08:00
 
 
3.7%
08:00
 
100.6
102.2
08:55
 
-12K
-23K
08:55
 
5.1%
5.1%
09:00
 
0.9%
1.2%
09:00
 
0.1%
0.2%
09:30
 
 
6.1M
09:30
 
 
27.2%
09:30
 
 
2.4
09:30
 
 
-1.4
10:00
 
115
116
10:00
 
104.8
105.7
n/a
 
 
2.9%
10:00
 
0.90%
1.52%
10:00
 
 
7.4%
10:00
 
 
2.6%
10:00
 
 
-3.3%
10:00
 
1.8%
2.1%
10:00
 
0.4%
0.4%
10:00
 
-2.7
-2.7
10:00
 
14.0
14.6
10:00
 
3.8
4.7
10:00
 
1.14
1.21
10:00
 
110.0
110.9
11:00
 
11.9%
12.1%
11:00
 
20%
23%
11:00
 
 
2.35%
11:00
 
 
0%
12:55
 
 
0%
12:55
 
 
5.5%
13:00
 
5.8%
5.9%
13:00
 
2.4%
2.3%
13:00
 
0.1%
0.4%
13:00
 
2.3%
2.2%
13:00
 
0.1%
0.4%
14:00
 
 
2.6%
14:00
 
 
-0.2%
15:30
 
 
2.18%
19:00
 
 
-31.45B
19:30
 
 
20:30
 
 
9.88M
21:45
 
 
7.8%
23:00
 
-0.5%
1.4%
23:00
 
 
0.1%
23:00
 
-3.6%
2.5%
23:50
 
 
0.2%
23:50
 
-0.3%
0.2%
Wednesday, Oct 31
24h
 
 
00:00
 
 
7.8%
00:00
 
 
-38.3
00:01
 
-10
-9
00:01
 
 
0.2%
00:30
 
 
4.5%
00:30
 
0.4%
0.5%
00:30
 
0.4%
0.5%
00:30
 
1.9%
2.1%
00:30
 
1.9%
1.9%
00:30
 
0.4%
0.4%
01:00
 
50.7
50.8
01:00
 
54.9
54.9
n/a
 
 
n/a
 
 
-0.1%
n/a
 
 
n/a
 
 
05:00
 
 
05:00
 
 
0.957M
05:00
 
-0.7%
1.6%
05:00
 
 
0.5%
05:00
 
43.4
43.4
07:00
 
0.5%
-0.1%
07:00
 
1.0%
1.6%
07:00
 
 
-2.42B
07:00
 
 
15.6%
07:00
 
 
71
07:00
 
 
3.2%
07:45
 
 
2.5%
07:45
 
 
-0.2%
08:00
 
0.6%
0.6%
08:00
 
2.8%
2.7%
08:00
 
0.6%
0.6%
08:00
 
 
8.1%
09:00
 
9.9%
9.7%
09:00
 
0.2%
0.2%
09:00
 
1.9%
1.8%
09:00
 
 
€0.11B
09:00
 
 
-30.8
10:00
 
1.7%
1.4%
10:00
 
1.8%
1.5%
10:00
 
0.3%
1.7%
10:00
 
0.2%
-0.5%
10:00
 
 
2.5%
10:00
 
 
5,912.91B
10:00
 
8.1%
8.1%
10:00
 
1.0%
0.9%
10:00
 
2.2%
2.1%
11:00
 
 
4.9%
11:30
 
 
4.2%
12:00
 
 
4%
12:00
 
5.00B
8.79B
12:15
 
189K
230K
12:30
 
0.7%
0.6%
12:30
 
 
-0.5%
12:30
 
-1.5%
-4.6%
12:30
 
 
0.2%
13:00
 
7.2%
7.3%
13:45
 
60.5
60.4
14:30
 
 
6.35M
15:00
 
9.0%
9.2%
17:00
 
6.5%
6.5%
17:15
 
 
19:00
 
 
-5.6%
20:15
 
 
21:30
 
 
59
23:00
 
 
0.7%
23:00
 
 
1.9%
23:50
 
 
¥76.5B
23:50
 
 
¥8.1B
Thursday, Nov 01
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
00:00
 
 
$9.57B
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
00:30
 
 
51.3
00:30
 
 
3.2%
00:30
 
 
1.9%
00:30
 
 
0%
00:30
 
 
1%
00:30
 
1,700M
1,604M
01:45
 
49.9
50.0
04:00
 
 
-0.18%
04:00
 
 
2.82%
04:00
 
 
2.88%
05:30
 
 
4.8%
06:00
 
 
56.3
06:00
 
 
50
06:45
 
-8
-7
07:00
 
0.2%
0.3%
07:00
 
1.9%
2.0%
07:30
 
 
55.2
n/a
 
 
6.9%
n/a
 
 
279.9K
08:15
 
1.1%
1.0%
08:15
 
 
0.1%
08:30
 
 
9.5%
08:30
 
 
53.4
08:30
 
58.5
59.7
09:00
 
 
53.6
09:30
 
53.0
53.8
11:00
 
-0.8%
-0.3%
11:00
 
-0.4%
2.0%
11:30
 
 
55.285K
12:00
 
 
49.67
12:00
 
0.75%
0.75%
12:00
 
£435B
£435B
12:00
 
 
12:00
 
 
12:00
 
9
9
12:00
 
0
0
12:00
 
0
0
12:00
 
 
12:00
 
1.5%
1.5%
12:30
 
 
1.636M
12:30
 
215K
215K
12:30
 
1.2%
-1.0%
12:30
 
2.0%
2.9%
12:30
 
 
13:00
 
 
50.9
13:00
 
 
16.77B
13:30
 
 
54.8
13:45
 
55.9
55.9
14:00
 
67.0
66.9
14:00
 
59.0
59.8
14:00
 
0.1%
0.1%
14:30
 
 
58B
18:00
 
 
4.971B
19:30
 
17.10M
17.44M
20:00
 
 
295.82B
23:50
 
6.2%
5.9%
Friday, Nov 02
24h
 
 
00:30
 
0.3%
0.3%
00:30
 
0.2%
0.3%
00:30
 
 
1.5%
07:00
 
4.6%
4.8%
07:00
 
0.6%
0.0%
07:45
 
 
€-97.3B
08:00
 
 
50.5
08:15
 
50.8
51.4
08:15
 
-0.3%
0.3%
08:45
 
49.5
50.0
08:50
 
51.2
51.2
08:55
 
52.3
52.3
09:00
 
52.1
52.1
09:00
 
80.50K
81.04K
09:00
 
2.2%
2.3%
09:30
 
51.9
52.1
11:30
 
 
$393.52B
12:30
 
34.5
34.5
12:30
 
3.1%
2.8%
12:30
 
190K
134K
12:30
 
0.3%
0.3%
12:30
 
3.7%
3.7%
12:30
 
 
62.7%
12:30
 
$-53.6B
$-53.2B
12:30
 
5.9%
5.9%
12:30
 
 
65.4%
12:30
 
10.0K
63.3K
13:00
 
 
52.4
13:30
 
 
$50.02B
13:30
 
 
$50.55B
13:30
 
$0.15B
$0.53B
13:45
 
 
72.5
14:00
 
0.4%
2.3%
15:00
 
 
467.9B
17:00
 
 
875
20:00
 
 
22:45
 
 
Saturday, Nov 03
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 

 

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