Forex Today: Safe-havens fall amid better risk tone, focus on trade, Brexit


Lingering trade war and recession fears kept the Asian traders in limbo, as the ongoing Yuan weakness combined with higher Wall Street futures and the recovery in the US Treasury yields sent mixed signals. Safe-havens such as the Yen and Gold lost ground amid increased demand for the risk assets such as oil, equities and Treasury yields.

However, the higher-yielding currencies, the Antipodeans, failed to benefit from improved risk tones and suffered moderate losses on weak fundamentals and persistent weakness in the onshore Chinese Yuan. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair held onto gains but remained below the 106 handle.

Heading into Europe, the EUR/USD pair is seen trapped within the familiar range below the 1.11 handle while the Cable consolidates Tuesday’s rally below 1.23 handle, awaiting fresh political cues.  

Main Topics in Asia

Italy’s Di Maio: The new government proposal will be voted online by next week

UK FinMin Javid: Will  announce increase in public spending on schools, police and health on September 04

RBNZ Governor Orr: monetary policy remains as effective as ever - Full speech

UK shop prices registered sharpest decline in over a year in August

PBOC sets Yuan reference rate at 7.0835

US moves swiftly to implement Trump’s trade war tariff increase on Chinese goods - SCMP

Asian stocks ex-Shanghai Composite track S&P 500 futures higher

US yield curve inverts to levels last seen in 2007

Japan's move to lower S. Korea trade status takes effect - Associated Press

China-US 10-yr yield spread hits highest since December 2017

Key Focus Ahead

The dry spell continues in the European calendar this Wednesday, as Germany’s Import Price Index and Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey fill in for a sparse data. Later in the European mid-morning, the Eurozone credit growth data will be reported at 0800 GMT. The UK docket has nothing to offer, but the pound could continue to draw support from positive Brexit news.

The NA session also remains a thin-showing, with no relevant first-tier macro data due on the cards. Therefore, the speeches by the FOMC members Barkin and Daly will be closely eyed for fresh dollar trades.

Markets will continue to watch out for fresh US-China trade headlines and the US President Trump’s comments among Brexit and Italian political developments for near-term trading directives.

EUR/USD remains below 1.11 despite US curve inversion, slide in US-German yield spread

EUR/USD remains on the defensive below 1.11 ahead of the London open despite the US yield curve inversion and the slide in the US-German yield spread to the lowest level since the first quarter of 2018.

GBP/USD remains subdued ahead of Brexit talks at Brussels

UK’s political uncertainty drags the GBP/USD from the monthly top. British politicians are active to defy no-deal Brexit, expected proroguing of the Parliaments. All eyes on David Frost’s visit to Brussels.

WTI: Looks north with falling channel breakout on the daily chart

WTI oil is looking north with falling channel breakout on the daily chart. A break above $56 could be seen during the day ahead. 

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Thursday, Aug 22
24h
 
 
Friday, Aug 23
24h
 
 
Saturday, Aug 24
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
Sunday, Aug 25
24h
 
 
Monday, Aug 26
24h
 
 
Wednesday, Aug 28
n/a
 
0.0%
-1.4%
n/a
 
-1.7%
-2.0%
06:00
 
9.6
9.7
08:00
 
 
3.3%
08:00
 
4.7%
4.7%
08:00
 
4.6%
4.5%
08:00
 
 
-24
09:40
 
 
-0.41%
11:00
 
 
-0.9%
14:30
 
-2.133M
-2.732M
16:20
 
 
17:00
 
 
1.824%
21:30
 
 
23:50
 
 
¥499.7B
23:50
 
 
¥-359.6B
Thursday, Aug 29
01:00
 
 
5%
01:00
 
 
-44.3
01:30
 
 
01:30
 
0.5%
-1.7%
05:00
 
 
37.8
07:55
 
5%
5%
07:55
 
4K
1K
09:00
 
10.5
10.6
09:00
 
-7.1
-7.1
09:00
 
-7.4
-7.4

 

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