Forex Today: Investors turn cautious as critical central bank week gets underway

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

Here is what you need to know on Monday, October 31:

Market mood sours on the last trading day of October as investors prepare for the key central bank meetings and high-tier data releases later in the week. The US Dollar Index builds on Friday's gains and holds in positive territory near 1110.00, US stock index futures post modest losses and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays calm above 4%. Eurostat will release the advanced estimate of the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and October inflation data on Monday. Later in the day, ISM Chicago's PMI and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Texas Manufacturing Survey will be watched closely by market participants.

Earlier in the day, the data from China showed that the NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI both fell into contraction territory in October, arriving at 49.2 and 48.7 respectively. In addition to the disappointing PMI data, ongoing coronavirus-related lockdowns and restrictions across numerous cities in China forced investors to seek refuge with the Shanghai Composite losing nearly 1% on the day. In the early trading hours of the Asian session on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision. Despite the negative shift witnessed in risk mood, AUD/USD trades in a narrow channel slightly above 0.6400.

EUR/USD failed to reclaim parity on Friday and started the new week in a relatively calm manner. As of writing, the pair was moving sideways at around 0.9950.

GBP/USD registered gains for the third straight week and went into a consolidation phase near 1.1600 early Monday. The Bank of England will announce its policy decisions later in the week and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will unveil the fiscal plan on November 17.

Following the Bank of Japan's decision to keep the policy setting unchanged on Friday, USD/JPY gained more than 100 pips on Friday. The pair fluctuates in a relatively tight range near 148.00 heading into the European session on Monday.

Gold suffered heavy losses on Friday as the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield snapped a three-day losing streak and reclaimed 4%. XAU/USD consolidates its losses at around $1,640 on Monday.

Bitcoin struggled to make a decisive move in either direction over the weekend but managed to end the week above the key $20,000 level. Ethereum gained more than 15% last week and turned quiet above $1,500 early Monday while awaiting the next significant catalyst.

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

GBP/USD off highs, back to 1.3620

GBP/USD remains slightly on the defensive at the end of the week, receding to the low 1.3600s after hitting fresh tops past 1.3670 earlier in the day. Cable’s correction comes after two daily gains in a row and amid a tepid advance in the Greenback, while poor UK data also accompany the downside.

EUR/USD treads water below 1.1700

EUR/USD now trades with modest losses around 1.1670 following another unsuccessful atempt to advance past 1.1700 the figure in a convincing fashion. The pair’s decline follows a maginal rebound in the US Dollar as market participants continue to assess recent US data as well as developments from the US bond market.

Gold trims gains, recedes to the sub-$4,600 area

Gold rapidly leaves behind Thursday’s inconclusive price action and advances markedly on Friday, briefly surpassing the $4,600 mark per troy ounce to hit three-month peaks. Meanwhile, the precious metal’s solid performance comes despite marginal gains in the buck coupled with another day of rising US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP bulls accelerate rally amid rising ETF inflows

The cryptocurrency market remains bullish on Friday, led by Bitcoin’s surge above $77,000. Altcoins, including Ethereum and Ripple, mirror BTC’s positive outlook, trading near $2,400 and $1.35, respectively.

Week ahead – Fed’s Jackson Hole and Nvidia earnings to dictate markets

Kevin Warsh to make his Jackson Hole debut amid confusing messaging. But a major hawkish surprise unlikely after bond market intervention. Nvidia earnings to also determine market direction as stock rally cools.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.