Forex Today: Eyes on ECB policy announcements following CPI-inspired USD rally


Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 11:

The US Dollar (USD) registered impressive gains against its rivals following the strong inflation data on Wednesday. The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce monetary policy decisions after the conclusion of the April meeting on Thursday and the US economic docket will feature the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data alongside the Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for March.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US rose 3.5% on a yearly basis in March, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday. This reading followed the 3.2% increase recorded in February and came in above the market expectation of 3.4%. On a monthly basis, the CPI and the core CPI both rose 0.4%.

The USD Index surged higher and reached its strongest level since November above 105.00, rising over 1% on the day. Later in the day, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting showed that policymakers expressed general uncertainty about the persistence of elevated inflation and indicated that recent data did not increase their confidence in inflation trending sustainably towards the 2% target. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield advanced beyond 4.5% and major equity indexes in the US lost around 1%.

US Dollar price this week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

  USD EUR GBP CAD AUD JPY NZD CHF
USD   0.88% 0.67% 0.60% 0.74% 0.92% 0.34% 1.17%
EUR -0.88%   -0.19% -0.28% -0.13% 0.06% -0.53% 0.33%
GBP -0.69% 0.20%   -0.08% 0.07% 0.24% -0.33% 0.50%
CAD -0.60% 0.28% 0.08%   0.15% 0.32% -0.25% 0.57%
AUD -0.75% 0.13% -0.06% -0.15%   0.18% -0.41% 0.43%
JPY -0.92% -0.05% -0.23% -0.33% -0.17%   -0.56% 0.27%
NZD -0.34% 0.52% 0.34% 0.25% 0.40% 0.57%   0.81%
CHF -1.20% -0.33% -0.50% -0.59% -0.45% -0.28% -0.86%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

 

The ECB is widely anticipated to leave key rates unchanged. Following the policy announcements, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on the policy outlook and respond to questions from the press. EUR/USD lost more than 1% on Wednesday and was last seen trading slightly below 1.0750. 

The Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained the policy rate at 5% as expected on Wednesday. In the post-meeting press conference, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said that a June rate cut was "within the realm of possibilities." USD/CAD gathered bullish momentum and advanced to its highest level since November above 1.3700. The pair stays in a consolidation phase slightly below this level in the European morning on Thursday.

USD/JPY broke out of its three-week-old range and rose to a fresh multi-decade high above 153.00. The pair fluctuates in a tight channel above this level in the early European session.

GBP/USD extended its slide after dropping below 1.2600 and lost over 1% on Wednesday. The pair holds steady slightly below 1.2550 to start the European session.

Gold staged a deep correction on Wednesday and declined below $2,320. XAU/USD edged slightly higher during the Asian trading hours and was last seen trading in positive territory near $2,340.

ECB FAQs

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD holds steadily as traders anticipate Australian Retail Sales, Fed’s decision

AUD/USD holds steadily as traders anticipate Australian Retail Sales, Fed’s decision

The Aussie Dollar registered solid gains against the US Dollar on Monday, edged up by 0.55% on an improvement in risk appetite, while the Greenback was crushed by Japanese authorities' intervention. As Tuesday’s Asian session begins, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6564.

AUD/USD News

EUR/USD finds support near 1.0720 after slow grind on Monday

EUR/USD finds support near 1.0720 after slow grind on Monday

EUR/USD jostled on Monday, settling near 1.0720 after churning in a tight but lopsided range as markets settled in for the wait US Fed outing. Investors broadly expect US rates to hold steady this week, but traders will look for an uptick in Fed guidance for when rate cuts could be coming.

EUR/USD News

Gold prices soften as traders gear up for Fed monetary policy decision

Gold prices soften as traders gear up for Fed monetary policy decision

Gold price snaps two days of gains, yet it remains within familiar levels, with traders bracing for the US Fed's monetary policy decision on May 1. The XAU/USD retreats below the daily open and trades at $2,334, down 0.11%, courtesy of an improvement in risk appetite. 

Gold News

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Relief wave on altcoins likely as BTC shows a $5,000 range

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Relief wave on altcoins likely as BTC shows a $5,000 range

Bitcoin price has recorded lower highs over the past seven days, with a similar outlook witnessed among altcoins. Meanwhile, while altcoins display a rather disturbing outlook amid a broader market bleed, there could be some relief soon as fundamentals show.

Read more

Gearing up for a busy week: It typically doesn’t get any bigger than this

Gearing up for a busy week: It typically doesn’t get any bigger than this

Attention this week is fixated on the Federal Reserve's policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday. While the US central bank is widely expected to remain on hold, traders will be eager to discern any signals from the Fed regarding the possibility of future interest-rate cuts.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures