Forex Today: Cautious mood and “sell the fact” after Trump's discharge, stimulus news eyed


Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, October 6:

Markets are mixed and the dollar is finding its feet after a risk-on mood on Monday. President Trump is out of the hospital but doubts persist over his condition. Intensive fiscal stimulus talks continue, and investors are waiting for white smoke. The RBA left rates unchanged, Powell and Lagarde speak later.

"Buy the rumor, sell the fact" – stocks advanced and the safe-haven dollar retreated while the world waited to see to President Donald Trump leave the Walter Reed hospital. He was eventually discharged but will continue receiving 24-hour care in the White House and his doctors said he is still not out of the woods. Several questions remain about the president's disease.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi held an hour-long phone call regarding fiscal stimulus. The extended conversation implies progress, yet investors still await substance.

The latest sums suggest a gap between $1.5 trillion that Republicans want and $2.2 trillion desired by Democrats. Last week's market moves suggest the relief package is the more significant driving force in markets. 

More Who will be the next president? Markets seem to care more about Congress' actions (for now)

Recent opinion polls continue showing that Trump is significantly trailing rival Joe Biden in polls conducted after the debate and around the president's positive coronavirus test. The vice-presidential debate is the next significant event of the campaign. 

Gold has been on the rise, holding above $1,900 amid hopes for a further cash injection from the government. 

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, will speak about the economic outlook later in the day. Powell is likely to reiterate the bank's commitment to low rates, yet without pledging any additional bond-buying in the near future.

The US JOLTs job openings for August are projected to show ongoing recovery in the labor market. While the figure is lagging the Non-Farm Payrolls, they are watched by the Fed. On Monday, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index came out above expectations.

Tech stocks are on the back foot in response to a report suggesting a House panel will examine breaking up tech giants. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the interest rate and bond-buying schemes unchanged as expected. AUD/USD moved higher before falling back below 0.72. The RBA seems marginally more confident about the recovery in the land down under. 

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, will speak twice on Tuesday, amid rising COVID-19 cases in the old continent. Spain and Paris stand out, with bars closing in Paris on Tuesday. EUR/USD has been hesitating under 1.18.

Brexit negotiations continue after a top-level conversation over the weekend. Both sides remain at odds over several topics including fisheries and state aid, yet the lack of adverse headlines allows sterling to recover. 

Cryptocurrencies advanced on Monday and are stabilizing on Tuesday, with Bitcoin holding above the $10,700 mark.

See Stocks to surge on Trump's discharge hopes, four reasons why a crash may follow

 

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