In its latest economic assessment of the Chinese economy, Fitch Ratings revised China’s outlook to ‘Negative’ while affirming its sovereign credit rating at ‘A+’.
Additional takeaways
Outlook revision reflects increasing risks to China's public finance outlook.
Forecast general government deficit in China to rise to 7.1% of GDP in 2024.
Believes that fiscal policy is increasingly likely to play an important role in supporting growth in coming years.
2024 deficit will be highest since 8.6% of gdp deficit in 2020.
The 2024 deficit will be the highest since the 8.6% of GDP deficit in 2020.
Forecasts GDP growth to moderate to 4.5% in 2024, from 5.2% in 2023.
Do not forecast a prolonged period of deflation, with inflation of 0.7% by end-2024 and 1.3% by end-2025.
In response, the Chinese Finance Ministry said that "Fitch's systems do not effectively reflect the positive effect of China's fiscal policy."
The Ministry added, “China's capability and resolve to maintain a good sovereign credit outlook does not change.”
Market reaction
AUD/USD continues to hold lower ground near 0.6620 on the above headlines, modestly flat on the day.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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