Fed: Powell Upbeat on growth outlook - AmpGFX


In the face of the evidence of an economy growing solidly above trend, potentially accelerating, with a tightening labor market, Fed Chair Powell sounded upbeat, according to Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd.

Key Quotes

“He said, “My personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since December.”  As the Chair of the Fed, this raises the risks that FOMC members see the potential for a faster pace of policy tightening from the three hikes currently projected by the FOMC dot-plot.”

Key takeaways from the prepared statement:

“After easing substantially during 2017, financial conditions in the United States have reversed some of that easing. At this point, we do not see these developments as weighing heavily on the outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation. Indeed, the economic outlook remains strong.”

This suggests that the Fed is largely unconcerned with the recent market developments and unlikely to delay further policy tightening if equity markets remain lower or fall moderately further.

“The robust job market should continue to support growth in household incomes and consumer spending, solid economic growth among our trading partners should lead to further gains in U.S. exports, and upbeat business sentiment and strong sales growth will likely continue to boost business investment. Moreover, fiscal policy is becoming more stimulative.”

The fiscal policy comes in here as adding to demand growth at a time when the outlook is already robust.

“In this environment, we anticipate that inflation on a 12-month basis will move up this year and stabilize around the FOMC's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Wages should increase at a faster pace as well. The Committee views the near-term risks to the economic outlook as roughly balanced but will continue to monitor inflation developments closely.”

"Powell hits specifically on the highly sensitive subject of wage growth.

  • In gauging the appropriate path for monetary policy over the next few years, the FOMC will continue to strike a balance between avoiding an overheated economy and bringing PCE price inflation to 2 percent on a sustained basis. While many factors shape the economic outlook, some of the headwinds the U.S. economy faced in previous years have turned into tailwinds: In particular, fiscal policy has become more stimulative and foreign demand for U.S. exports is on a firmer trajectory. Despite the recent volatility, financial conditions remain accommodative. At the same time, inflation remains below our 2 percent longer-run objective. In the FOMC's view, further gradual increases in the federal funds rate will best promote attainment of both of our objectives. As always, the path of monetary policy will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
  • Headwinds are now tailwinds – suggesting risks to outlook turning more to a positive skew (even if the FOMC still describes risks as “roughly balanced”.
  • In questioning, Powell suggested he was amenable to some easing of the regulatory requirements on banks.  The shift in tone may be one reason why US bank shares have been outperforming other countries’ bank shares.
  • Comments from Powell also appeared to admit that the US budget is not on a sustainable trajectory.  He said, “We really need to get on a sustainable fiscal path, and the time to be doing that is now.”  This speaks to one of the downside risks for the USD; that the market places a higher risk premium on US government bonds.
  • One more dovish comment was that Powell does not appear to view the labor market as tightly stretched as other FOMC members.  On the neutral unemployment rate he said,  “If I had to make an estimate, I’d say it’s somewhere in the low fours,” (compared to a median FOMC estimate of 4.6%).”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD drops towards 1.1300 on dovish ECB headlines

EUR/USD is extending the drop towards 1.1300 after the ECB is debating over a potential increase in the APP at its meeting next week. The US dollar rebounds amid a cautious mood. Omicron, US-China woes keep investors on the edge.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD battles 1.3200 amid Omicron jitters, USD rebound

GBP/USD is trading flat around 1.3200, struggling to capitalize on the overnight goodish rebound from a one-year low. Fresh COVID-19 jitters pushed back BoE rate hike expectations and undermined the pound. Resurgent USD demand further stalled aggressive bullish bets.

GBP/USD News

Gold eases towards $1,780 on resurgent USD demand

Gold remains on the back foot below $1,790 amid broad US dollar reboud. Market sentiment dwindles as virus-linked news battles geopolitical fears, Fed rate hike concerns. Friday’s US CPI becomes crucial as inflation expectations improve.

Gold News

Analysts believe Ripple could beat SEC lawsuit on one condition

Experts are weighing in on the possible closure of the payments giant's lawsuit with the SEC. Analysts predict that the payment giant's win in the SEC vs. Ripple case could push XRP to a new high.

Read more

Cyber Monday 2021 Discounts!

Glued to your trading screen on Cyber Monday? Upgrade your skills by signing up for FXStreet’s Premium service, offered at a discount of up to 50%. Fellow traders have already taken advantage of Black Friday profits. What about you? 

Subscribe now!

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures