Fed: Expect $150-200bn boost, followed by organic growth – ABN AMRO


Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN AMRO, expects the Fed to formally announce a decision on the balance sheet at the 29-30 October FOMC.

Key Quotes

“The question is, by how much will the Fed need to regrow the balance sheet, and at what pace? Clues for this are provided by the continued repo operations that the NY Fed has conducted to address the liquidity shortage in the short term. While demand at these operations has fallen considerably, from a peak of $92bn in September to $30.8bn in today’s operation, the Fed will want to regrow the balance sheet at least by the maximum amount demanded at these operations, plus a buffer to be sure demand is sufficiently met.”

“We therefore expect an initial boost of c.$150-200bn – with purchases conducted over a few months – followed by organic growth of the balance sheet in line with nominal GDP growth (to meet growing cash demand – as occurred prior to the financial crisis), i.e. c.4% p.a. In the meantime, the Fed will likely want to continue its repo operations until it judges the balance sheet has reached a level sufficient to cover reserve demand.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD retreats after strong NFP, weak German data

EUR/USD is trading below   1.11 after US Non-Farm Payrolls beat expectations with 266K and mixed wage growth. Earlier, weak German data weighed on the euro. Updates on trade are awaited.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD shrugs off strong NFP, focuses on UK elections

GBP/USD is trading below 1.3150 but off the post-NFP lows. The US gained more jobs than expected. The Conservatives remain in the lead ahead of the debate between PM Johnson and Labour leader Corbyn.

GBP/USD News

US recession? Not so fast, a calm look at the economy and currencies ahead of the NFP

Recent US economic indicators have been downbeat, but they include silver linings and are backed by robust consumption. Valeria Bednarik, Joseph Trevisani, and Yohay Elam...

Read more

Gold drops to fresh multi-day lows on upbeat NFP report

Gold faded an intraday bullish spike to the $1480 area and tumbled to fresh multi-day lows, around the $1465 region in reaction to upbeat US monthly jobs report.

Gold News

USD/JPY: bearish ahead of US employment figures

Japanese data missed the market’s expectations, triggering fresh concerns about the economy. Focus on US employment figures, market players anticipate dismal numbers. USD/JPY is technically bearish could break below the 108.00 level.

USD/JPY News

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures