Fed: Expect $150-200bn boost, followed by organic growth – ABN AMRO


Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN AMRO, expects the Fed to formally announce a decision on the balance sheet at the 29-30 October FOMC.

Key Quotes

“The question is, by how much will the Fed need to regrow the balance sheet, and at what pace? Clues for this are provided by the continued repo operations that the NY Fed has conducted to address the liquidity shortage in the short term. While demand at these operations has fallen considerably, from a peak of $92bn in September to $30.8bn in today’s operation, the Fed will want to regrow the balance sheet at least by the maximum amount demanded at these operations, plus a buffer to be sure demand is sufficiently met.”

“We therefore expect an initial boost of c.$150-200bn – with purchases conducted over a few months – followed by organic growth of the balance sheet in line with nominal GDP growth (to meet growing cash demand – as occurred prior to the financial crisis), i.e. c.4% p.a. In the meantime, the Fed will likely want to continue its repo operations until it judges the balance sheet has reached a level sufficient to cover reserve demand.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD approaching the 0.7100 threshold

AUD/USD trades around 0.7140 amid renewed demand for the greenback coupled with falling gold prices. NAB’s Business Confidence coming up next.

AUD/USD News

XAU/USD retreats to $2030 after making a run to $2050

Gold prices spiked to the upside after the beginning of the American session but then pulled back erasing gains. XAU/USD jumped to $2049.70/oz, and as of writing, it trades at $2033, practically at the same level it closed on Friday.

Gold News

EUR/USD weakening as Asia comes to play

The shared currency weakened against its American rival, now trading at Monday lows and heading towards 1.1700. Dollar’s strength still not enough to confirm a U-turn.

EUR/USD News

Bitcoin Price Outlook: The reason why BTC/USD dropped $500 in less than one minute

Bitcoin has now basically transformed the previous $10k resistance level into $12k. The first flash crash happened on August 2 with Bitcoin peaking at $12,123 and dropping to $10,518 in minutes. 

Read more

WTI: $42.30 is the level to beat for the bulls

WTI (futures on Nymex) climbed nearly 1.50% in a bid to test the $42 mark on Monday, in the wake of the upbeat outlook painted by Saudi Aramco’s CEO Nasser and expectations that Iraq will cut output in August.

Oil News

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures