Next week key event in the Eurozone is likely to be the ECB minutes. Analysts from Danske Bank expect the ECB minutes to shed more light on how it was the discussion within the Governing Council on extending QE.
“In the euro area, the calendar is rather thin next week in terms of data releases. We start off with the euro area industrial production figure for June, due for release on Monday. Against consensus, the German industrial production figure for June dropped 1.1% m/m on Monday. The drop was widespread, meaning both construction and all manufacturing sectors saw a decline in output. We expect the euro area to follow the German figure and report a monthly decline in June of 0.8%.”
“On Tuesday, we get the first estimate on German GDP growth for Q2. Throughout Q2, German activity indicators have reached historical highs signalling strong growth in Q2. As we observed last week, the euro area reported quarterly growth of 0.6%. Given activity indicators and euro area growth, we expect a German GDP figure of 0.6% quarterly growth in Q2.”
“On Thursday, the ECB minutes from the July meeting are set to be released. Focus will remain on discussions related to extension of the QE programme. At the meeting, the Governing Council was unanimous in setting no precise date for when to discuss changes to the QE programme and additionally, Draghi said the ECB had not tasked its staff to look into QE options after December. In light of this, it will be interesting to see how the discussion within the Governing Council has evolved around extending QE.”
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