EUR/USD tumbles out of recent range, tests below 1.0770 as markets flee into safe havens

Euro slips to near-term lows as risk-off markets bid Greenback.
European markets will be largely dark on Wednesday.
Midweek Fed rate call on the cards.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

EUR/USD slid below the 1.0670 level on Tuesday after an unexpected uptick in US wages growth reignited fears of sticky inflation, chopping down rate cut expectations and sending investors into safe haven bids.

With European markets broadly shuttered on Wednesday for Labour Day, investors will be left to focus on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest rate call. Markets are broadly expecting the Fed to hold rates steady for the time being, but market participants will be actively looking for firmer policy guidance from the US central bank as inflation fears and a steep downturn in US economic growth figures plague market sentiment.

US housing prices and wage costs for businesses both showed acceleration on Tuesday, while consumer and business sentiment surveys turn sharply lower at the same time. Investors are grappling with the prospect of a stagnant economy with too-high inflation that will hobble the Fed’s ability to cut rates at the higher pace that investors have been hoping for since the start of 2024.

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets now only see a single rate quarter-point rate cut from the Fed for the year, with a 54% chance of no rate cut in September and only a 57% chance of a 25-basis-point rate trim at the Fed’s November policy meeting.

EUR/USD technical outlook

EUR/USD’s decline on Tuesday firmly knocked the pair below the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0800 as the pair tests into fresh weekly lows and in striking distance of a supply zone near 1.0660.

The pair is approaching April’s low bids near the 1.0600 handle, and EUR/USD is down around 2% from the last swing high at 1.0885.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold hits fresh three-month low below $4,000 amid surging energy prices

Gold slides to a fresh three-month low at $3,986.74 in the Asian trade on Friday. The precious metal faces intense selling pressure, following a consolidation breakdown that took place on the range between $4,227.90 and $4,066.64 in the past three weeks.

Cardano: Whale selling deepens correction

Cardano (ADA) edges higher by nearly 2% on Friday, following a roughly 6% decline the previous day. The pullback aligns with the sell-side appeal among large-wallet investors, commonly referred to as whales, and Cardano derivatives. The technical outlook for ADA is bearish, with downside momentum persisting. Whales are losing their appetite for holding ADA tokens, fueling near-term selling pressure.

The Bank of England just got its clearest reason to hike. Here's what it's really watching

UK inflation as measured by the CPI accelerated to 3.5% YoY in September, up from 3.1% in August, according to the Office for National Statistics. This is the highest level since October 2025, exceeding economists' expectations of 3.4% and pushing inflation further from the BoE's 2% target.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.