- PMI activity data due on both sides of the Atlantic.
- EUR/USD finds middle ground just below 1.0700.
- Markets looking for moderate recovery across the PMI board.
The EUR/USD is testing the waters near 1.0650 after a quiet Monday saw the major pair flatline ahead of a densely-packed economic data docket. Both the US and the wider Eurozone area will see updates to Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures on Tuesday, with high-tier US data due in the back half of the trading week as rate-hungry markets continue to froth for rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Tuesday brings pan-Eurozone HCOB PMIs for April, with the Composite PMI expected to recover to 50.8 in April compared to the previous month’s 50.3. Germany’s Composite PMI is also expected to climb further to 48.6 from the previous 47.7. The broader European Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain in contraction territory but recover ground to 46.5 from the previous 46.1.
On the US side, the S&P Global PMI for April is expected to print at 52.0 for both the Manufacturing and Services components. Manufacturing was last seen at 51.9, while Services last printed at 51.7 in March.
Later this week, US annualized quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to ease back to 2.5% from the previous print of 3.4%, while March’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is expected to hold steady at 0.3% MoM in April.
EUR/USD technical outlook
The EUR/USD pair is holding steady near 1.0650 after a recent tumble from the 1.0880 level, with the Fiber sliding 2.62% peak-to-trough in April. A limited recover from near-term lows just above the 1.0600 handle leaves the pair struggling on the low side of the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as price action looks for a floor.
Daily candlesticks see the way open for an extended decline into the last major swing low near 1.0500, but recent price action could drag the EUR/USD back into the 200-day EMA at 1.0807.
EUR/USD hourly chart
EUR/USD daily chart
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