EUR/USD snaps four-day winning streak, but call options continue to gain value

Monday's inverted hammer candle indicates EUR/USD's rally has likely run out of steam.
Options market continues to add bullish bets, suggesting a continuation of the rally.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

EUR/USD fell 0.18% on Monday, snapping the four-day winning streak.

Notably, the pair formed an inverted hammer on Monday, signaling the rally from Oct. 1's low of 1.0879 has run out of steam.

Also, Monday's candlestick pattern has made today's close pivotal. A bearish reversal would be confirmed if the spot ends below Monday's low of 1.1139. Meanwhile, a close above Monday's high of 1.1179 would mean a continuation of the rally.

A bullish close looks likely, according to the options market. One-month risk reversals, a gauge of calls to puts on the common currency, jumped to 0.162 on Monday, the highest level since July 22. The positive number indicates the implied volatility premium for calls (bullish bets) is higher than that for puts (bearish bets).

Put simply, investors added a premium for calls (added bullish bets) despite the pullback in the spot.

Further, the risk revival seen in the stock markets, possibly due to the easing of US-China trade tensions, could bode well for the common currency.

As of writing, EUR/USD is trading largely unchanged on the day at 1.1150.

The pair may suffer a bearish close if the UK's parliament does not agree to the Brexit timetable, possibly leading to a drop in GBP/USD. The 115-page Brexit bill published by the UK government on Monday will get its second reading in the House of Commons on Tuesday.

EUR1MRR

Technical levels

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.1149
Today Daily Change	-0.0001
Today Daily Change %	-0.01
Today daily open	1.115

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.1006
Daily SMA50	1.1037
Daily SMA100	1.1138
Daily SMA200	1.1209

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.118
Previous Daily Low	1.1138
Previous Weekly High	1.1063
Previous Weekly Low	1.0941
Previous Monthly High	1.111
Previous Monthly Low	1.0885
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.1154
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.1164
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.1132
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.1115
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.1091
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.1173
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.1197
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.1215

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

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