EUR/USD sits at weekly highs above 1.0950 amid a quiet start to a big week

EUR/USD sustains Friday’s rebound to weekly highs through 1.0950.
Latest US jobs report pours cold water on hawkish Fed rate hike outlook.
Focus shifts to Germany’s ZEW survey and US CPI data this week.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

EUR/USD is holding steady above 1.0950, sitting near eight-day highs of 1.0975 set on Friday. The pair is consolidating last week’s gains, in what seems to be a relatively quiet start to a big week ahead.

Investors digest Friday’s volatile trading activity, in response to the US labor market report, which fuelled further recovery in the EUR/USD pair from near the 1.0830 region. The main currency pair rose over a big figure on Friday after the US Dollar incurred heavy losses on disappointing US payrolls data. Non-farm payrolls for June came in at 209k versus a 225k estimate. Additionally, May and April NFPs saw a big downward revision, suggesting a cooldown in the job market.

The wage inflation data, represented by Average Hourly Earnings, was +0.4% in June against a +0.3% estimate and matched May's +0.4% which was revised upward from +0.3%. Following the US jobs data release, investors began to believe the Fed may not be as hawkish as expected, sending EUR/USD back toward 1.1000 at the expense of the US Dollar.

Markets are now pricing in roughly 70% odds of a Fed rate hike pause in September after the expected 25 basis points (bps) rate hike by the US central bank this month.

Meanwhile, mixed commentary from the European Central Bank (ECB) officials over the weekend, appears to be limiting the further upside in the Euro (EUR) for the time being. ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said, “Eurozone rates will soon reach their high point, but it will be more of a high plateau than a peak.” ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Portugal Governor, Mario Centeno, said that he expects Eurozone “inflation under 3% by the end of 2023.”

Next of note for traders remains the Chinese inflation data, which could have a significant impact on risk sentiment and the US Dollar valuations, in turn, influencing the EUR/USD price action. Also, in focus remains the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for July due later this Monday, in the absence of top-tier US economic data. This week’s Germany’s ZEW survey and US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be closely followed by EUR/USD traders.

EUR/USD: Technical levels to watch

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.0965
Today Daily Change	-0.0003
Today Daily Change %	-0.03
Today daily open	1.0967

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.09
Daily SMA50	1.0859
Daily SMA100	1.0829
Daily SMA200	1.0621

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0973
Previous Daily Low	1.0867
Previous Weekly High	1.0973
Previous Weekly Low	1.0834
Previous Monthly High	1.1012
Previous Monthly Low	1.0662
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0933
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0908
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0898
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0829
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0792
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.1004
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.1042
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.111

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold remains range-bound below $4,200

Gold has given up some ground after an initial bullish attempt to reach weekly highs, returning to below the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The US Dollar’s strong upside momentum, combined with rising US Treasury yields across the curve, seems to keep further gains in the yellow metal under scrutiny.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?

The Euro is not the sick man of Europe. France's bond market is

EUR/USD remains under pressure, near the 17-month low of 1.1161 reached on Monday. The pair has lost more than 7% since its yearly peak, as concerns over France's public finances increasingly weigh on the single currency. But behind the weakness of the Euro (EUR), the problem does not necessarily lie with the European economy as a whole.