EUR/USD propped up near 1.0750 ahead of European Retail Sales

EUR/USD cycled above 1.0750 on Monday.
European Retail Sales figures due on Tuesday.
Friday’s US consumer sentiment survey to cap off an otherwise quiet week.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

EUR/USD churned around 1.0770 to kick off the new trading week, with the pair rising after better-than-expected Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures early Monday before settling into familiar chart territory above 1.0750 ahead of Tuesday’s pan-European Retail Sales figures due in the upcoming European market session.

Monday’s HCOB Services PMI for April surprised to the upside, printing at 53.3 MoM versus the forecast steady hold at 52.9. Tuesday’s upcoming European Retail Sales will be the day’s key data print for the day’s session, with markets expecting pan-European Retail Sales for March to rebound to 0.6% after the previous month’s -0.5% decline.

The week’s US data docket remains tepid, leaving Fedspeak from various heads of the Federal Reserve (Fed) giving speeches this week at the forefront. The week will close out with Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which is expected to ease back down to 77.0 in May after the previous month’s 77.2.

EUR/USD technical outlook

EUR/USD is in chart churn near 1.0770 as the pair trades within the technical range established during last Friday’s volatility, with the pair capped off in the near-term by Friday’s high just above 1.0810. Intraday momentum is leaning into the bullish side, with the pair climbing from last week’s bottom bids near 1.0650.

On daily candlesticks, the pair is trading into the high side of a descending trendline from 1.1140, a peak set in late December. EUR/USD is recovering from the last swing low into the 1.0600 handle, though immediate technical resistance is priced in at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0797.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

GBP/USD extends the drop to 1.3360

GBP/USD builds on Monday’s decline and briefly clinches five-day lows near 1.3360 on Tuesday. Cable’s extra pullback follows the better tone in the Greenback as uncertainty in the Middle East prompts investors to adopt a cautious stance. Meanwhile, an apathetic UK labour market report also collaborates with the selling pressure on the British Pound.

EUR/USD stays offered just above 1.1400

EUR/USD keeps the downtrend well in place for yet another day, challenging the 1.1400 contention zone on Tuesday. The continuation of the selling impulse in spot comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar, which continues to find support in the persistent effervescence surrounding the US-Iran crisis.

Middle East crisis intensifies, Gold up

Gold now seems to have embarked on a consolidative phase below the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce in the latter part of Tuesday’s session. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and rising expectations for a hawkish Fed policy outlook are expected to limit the precious metal’s bullish momentum in the near term.

XRP rebounds on rising on-chain activity

Ripple (XRP) ticks up and trades around $1.13 at the time of writing on Tuesday. This rebound aligns with a broader recovery in the cryptocurrency market, attributed to reports that mediators between the United States (US) and Iran are seeking a 10-day cessation of strikes to find a way back to the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

The Iranian war has again risen

The Iranian war has again risen to the top of the economics factor list. There is no end in sight. Intelligence experts say the current level of offense/retaliation will not change minds in Tehran, while in Washington, Trump fears all-out war, which would mean boots on the ground.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.