EUR/USD is teasing second straight monthly loss

EUR/USD is currently reporting a moderate monthly loss. The pair fell more than 2% in July.
A big beat on German retail sales data is needed to avert monthly loss.
The pair may also take cues from the Eurozone CPI and US personal spending figures.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1044, representing a 0.28% drop on the opening price of 1.1075 seen on Aug. 1.

If the pair remains below 1.1075 till today's New York close, then it would be the second straight monthly loss. It is worth noting that the pair fell 2.58% in July.

Focus on German retail sales and Eurozone CPI

The German data due at 06:00 GMT is expected to show the consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, fell 1% month-on-month in July, having risen by 3.5% in June.

An economic recession is already knocking at the German economy's door, courtesy of a slowdown in exports. These recession fears would be bolstered if retail sales (domestic demand) print below estimate.

So, EUR/USD could end up with a bigger monthly loss that the 0.28% drop seen at press time.

The common currency, however, could end the month on a flat-to-positive note if both the German retail sales and the Eurozone consumer price index for August beats estimates.

While the German spending may have ticked higher due to the holiday season, the probability of the Eurozone CPI printing above estimates is low. After all, Germany's inflation slowed in August.

Post-Eurozone data, the focus will shift to the US personal spending data, due at 12:30 GMT.

Technical levels

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.1044
Today Daily Change	-0.0012
Today Daily Change %	-0.11
Today daily open	1.1058

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.1131
Daily SMA50	1.1197
Daily SMA100	1.1207
Daily SMA200	1.1279

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.1094
Previous Daily Low	1.1042
Previous Weekly High	1.1154
Previous Weekly Low	1.1052
Previous Monthly High	1.1373
Previous Monthly Low	1.106
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.1062
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.1074
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.1035
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.1013
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0984
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.1087
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.1116
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.1138

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

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