EUR/USD is marginally up amid mixed German economic data

EUR/USD inches up with the pair navigating close to the 200-day moving average.
German GDP contracts in Q4 2023, while Ifo business climate index shows slight improvement.
Fed officials maintain cautious stance on rate cuts, despite solid US economic indicators.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

The Euro prints gains against the US Dollar during Friday's North American session but still circa the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 1.0826, amid an absent economic calendar in the United States (US). Data from the Euro area (EU) witnessed its largest economy shrinking while business sentiment improved. The EUR/USD trades at 1.0827, up a minuscule 0.04%.

EUR/USD hovers around 200-DMA as German economy contracts and business sentiment slightly improves

Data from the EU revealed that the German economy contracted -0.3% as expected on a quarterly basis in Q4 2023, according to Destatis. Annually based, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank -0.2%. Further data revealed that the business climate in Germany slightly improved from 85.2 to 85.5, according to the Ifo Institute.

Across the pond, the US economic calendar is absent though the latest unemployment claims figures and solid S&P Global Flash PMIs justified Fed officials’ hawkish commentary. Policymakers stated they’re ready to ease policy but not in a rush, as recent economic data solidifies that the economy is strong, which could reignite inflationary pressures.

The CME FedWatch Tool depicted traders aligning with the latest Fed projections, with officials estimating three rate cuts, as revealed by the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in December 2023. As of writing, traders have priced in 81 basis points (bps) of easing toward the end of 2024.

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The EUR/USD is neutral to bearish bias, as the upward move toward the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 1.0885 was quickly rejected, with bears remaining in charge. If they push prices below the 1.0800 figure could exacerbate another leg down, targeting the November 10 low of 1.0656. But first, they must reclaim the 1.0750 area, followed by the 1.0700 mark. On the bullish side, the pair must reclaim the 200-DMA before buyers lift the exchange rate towards the 50-DMA ahead of 1.0900.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL LEVELS

Overview
Today last price	1.0819
Today Daily Change	-0.0003
Today Daily Change %	-0.03
Today daily open	1.0822

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0791
Daily SMA50	1.0886
Daily SMA100	1.081
Daily SMA200	1.0827

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0888
Previous Daily Low	1.0803
Previous Weekly High	1.0806
Previous Weekly Low	1.0695
Previous Monthly High	1.1046
Previous Monthly Low	1.0795
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0856
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0835
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0787
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0752
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0701
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0873
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0923
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.0958

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Christian Borjon began his career as a retail trader in 2010, mainly focused on technical analysis and strategies around it. He started as a swing trader, as he used to work in another industry unrelated to the financial markets.

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