EUR/USD holding on just above 1.1200 post-EMU CPI


  • EUR/USD comes under pressure and approaches 1.1200.
  • EMU flash CPI came at 0.3% YoY and 0.3% MoM.
  • Feds’ Jerome Powell will testify later in the NA session.

The single currency has resumed the downside so far on Tuesday and is now forcing EUR/USD to challenge the key support at 1.12 the figure.

EUR/USD paid no attention to data

EUR/USD is fading Monday’s advance to the vicinity of the 1.1300 level, re-shifting its focus to the lower end of the range near the 1.1200 mark.

In the meantime, there is not much going on other than the gradual re-opening of economies in Europe following the coronavirus lockdown. Special attention, however, stays on July 1st, as many (if not all of) EU members will lift the air-travel ban, resuming flights within the region and from/to other countries.

In the calendar, inflation figures in the broader euro zone tracked by the headline CPI are expected to rise at an annualized 0.3% in June, while CPI excluding food and energy costs is seen gaining 0.8% over the last twelve months.

Across the pond, house prices measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller Index are due seconded by the Chicago PMI, the Consumer Confidence and the testimony by Chief J.Powell. In addition, FOMC’s Williams, Brainard, Kashkari and Bostic are all due to speak later on Tuesday.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD appears to have met some important resistance in the 1.1350 region in recent days. Investors continue to gauge the gradual and relentless return to some sort of economic normality in Europe against the possibility of a second wave of contagion (as per new coronavirus outbreaks around the world). The constructive view in the euro, however, remains well sustained by the improvement of some fundamentals in the region, in turn propped up by persistent (and massive) monetary stimulus by central banks. On top, the solid performance of the region’s current account is also adding to the attractiveness of the shared currency.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.33% at 1.1203 and faces immediate contention at 1.1168 (monthly low Jun.19) seconded by 1.1147 (high Mar.27) and finally 1.1033 (200-day SMA). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1287 (weekly high Jun.29) would target 1.1348 (weekly high Jun.23) en route to 1.1422 (monthly high Jun.10).

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