The EUR/USD pair fell to a 5-day low of 1.1775 in Asia on reports that US President Donald Trump was impressed with Stanford University economist John Taylor during an interview for Fed Chair. Taylor is widely believed to be more hawkish than Yellen.
US-German 10-yr yield spread rises
The spread or the difference between the US 10-year treasury yield and German 10-year bund yield currently stands at 192 basis points; the highest level since mid June. The widening of the spread adds credence to the drop in the EUR/USD pair.
However, the treasury yield curve (difference between the 10-year yield and the 2-year yield) fell to 76 basis points; the lowest level since August 2016. Flattening of the yield curve is dollar bearish.
On the surface, it does appear that the bond markets are sending mixed signals. As of now, the flattening of the yield curve is being overshadowed by the widening of the US-German yield spread.
Looking ahead - Eyes will be on the Spanish/Catalonia standoff whereby the Spanish has given Catalonia until Thursday to drop their independence campaign. On the data front, German and Eurozone survey and US industrial production could move the market.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook
FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Benarik writes, "from a technical point of view, the pair has made little progress during the last two sessions, still trading in the red when compared to Friday's close. In the 4 hours chart, the price has managed to regain ground above a bearish 100 SMA, but still below the 20 and 200 SMAs, while technical indicators remain within negative territory, losing the limited upward strength they presented earlier today. The upward scope seems limited by selling interest on approaches to 1.1820, and seems there won't be today a trigger that can push the level beyond it. If it happens, however, the pair has scope to extend its gains up to the 1.1850 region. To the downside, the 50% retracement of the latest bullish run stands at 1.1775, while the pair has a static support a few pips below the level, in the 1.1760 region. Below this last, the 1.1720 comes next ahead of the critical 1.1660 region."
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.