According to the analysts at Danske Bank, the recent pickup in inflation and inflation expectations, coupled with speculation that the Riksbank is approaching a point where it will not add further stimulus, has been good news for the SEK.
“However, it is not time for the Riksbank to celebrate yet. We expect inflation to edge lower in coming months and our April estimate is well below that of the Riksbank. When this comes into play, it could weigh somewhat on the Swedish krona. We expect EUR/SEK to move only slowly and very gradually lower over the forecast horizon. We keepour3M, 6M and 12M forecasts intact at 9.40, 9.30 and 9.20 and raise our1M forecast to 9.50 (from9.40).”