EUR: markets shift focus back to policy and Fed/ECB – Scotiabank

The Euro (EUR) is up a marginal 0.1% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 as it consolidates in a tight range in the mid/lower-1.16s, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

EUR is up marginally on the day

"Broader turbulence in global bond markets looks to have moderated and the overall tone appears to be stabilizing, offer the EUR some support as participants shift their focus back to fundamentals and the outlook for relative central bank policy. Comments from ECB GC member Muller have underscored a preference for holding rates at current levels, confirming market pricing for both the September and October meetings."

"December is still priced for about 8bpts of easing, and thus could provide support as the cut is priced out. In terms of data, the final PMI’s offered marginal surprises, with the euro area services figure printing just above 50 (expansion) as the France print came in just below the dividing line while Germany’s came in at 49.3."

"The RSI is at 50, congestion continues to center around the 50 day MA (1.1666), and the one month range is bound between support in the upper 1.15s and resistance in the mid/lower 1.17 area. We look to a near -term range bound between 1.1600 and 1.1700."