Bitcoin approaches a critical zone: Bear pennant projects $56,000

Based on the most recent analyses from February 2026, the short answer is that it is highly unlikely that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 this month. The market consensus and predictions from financial institutions point to a bearish trend in the short term, with potential further declines before any significant recovery.

The market consensus: Short-term pessimism

Various sources and metrics agree that the chances of seeing Bitcoin at $100k during February are practically zero. Platforms like Kalshi estimated in early February that there was only a 7% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100k before the end of the month. These markets, which aggregate the collective expectations of investors, are a very reliable gauge of overall sentiment.

On TradingView, 14 out of 15 moving average indicators showed a "sell" recommendation, and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) suggested that the recent selling was a methodical move and not the end of the correction. Additionally, the formation of a "bear pennant" pattern is being observed, which, if confirmed, could drive the price down towards $55,000.

Institutional demand, a pillar of the previous bull market, has weakened. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $1.6 billion in January, and liquidity on the ask-side depth plummeted, clearly indicating a lack of buying conviction.

The voice of experts: Downgraded forecasts

Standard Chartered "Throws in the Towel" (for now): This bank, known for its bullish predictions, has made a radical shift. It recently revised its year-end 2026 target for Bitcoin from $150,000 down to $100,000.

"I think we are going to see more pain and a final capitulation period for digital asset prices in the next few months. The macro backdrop is unlikely to provide support until we near [Kevin] Warsh taking over at the Fed," Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, said in an email to The Block while sharing a new report on Thursday.

But most relevant to your question is their warning that, before any rebound, the price could fall to as low as $50,000 in the coming months. Geoffrey Kendrick, its head of digital assets research, attributes this to the continued outflow from ETFs and a weakening macroeconomic environment.

Beyond Standard Chartered, other technical analysts support the view of a deeper correction. It is noted that if Bitcoin loses the key support level of $58,000 (200-week moving average), the next stop could be the $40,000 zone.

So, what's happening with the price?

To understand why the predictions are so negative, you have to look at the complete market chart in February 2026:

In early February, Bitcoin staged a recovery from $60,000 to $70,000. However, this move was attributed more to a short squeeze and a repositioning driven by the recovery in traditional markets (like tech stocks), rather than genuine and sustained demand from long-term investors.

Despite the rise to $70,000, options traders are paying high premiums to protect their portfolios against declines. A high concentration of put options with strike prices between $50,000 and $60,000 is being observed for the end of February, indicating that the market is seriously pricing in that possibility.

A longer-term view (not for February)

Although short-term pessimism dominates, not all is lost for 2026. Some analysts, like those at The Motley Fool, maintain hope that Bitcoin could return to $100,000 at some point this year. Their arguments are based on future catalysts, such as:

Possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) that could weaken the dollar and make risk-on assets like Bitcoin more attractive. However, these are events that, if they occur, would take time to materialize and would not have an immediate impact in February.

The general sentiment is that Bitcoin faces an uphill battle in February. Most indicators and experts suggest that a continuation of the correction towards $50,000-$60,000 is more likely than a rally to $100,000.

The crypto fear and greed index fell to 10 out of 100 on February 17 

The reading placed sentiment firmly in extreme fear territory. Matrixport analysts noted that the index's 21-day moving average slipped into negative territory and began turning higher. They said such a shift historically pointed to seller exhaustion and pervasive pessimism among investors.

"Given the cyclical link between sentiment and price dynamics, the market is likely approaching a turning point," Matrixport said.

The analysts cautioned that further short-term declines remained possible despite the signal.

Traders watched the $60,000 level as a key support area

Robin Singh, chief executive of crypto tax platform Koinly, warned that the level might not hold if risk appetite weakened further.

"One macro wobble, another wave of uncertainty, or even just sustained chop in the mid-$60,000s could easily tip this into a sharper flush back into the $50,000s," Singh told Bloomberg.

If $60,000 failed to hold, analysts pointed to the $53,000 to $55,000 range as the next potential support zone. Some observers maintained a constructive long-term view despite the near-term weakness. 

Hougan said he expected the recovery from the current downturn to be rounded rather than V-shaped.

"There is actually a lot of very good news in crypto that is not being recognized by the market," he said. "It'll get there over time".

Bernstein analysts reiterated their bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin despite the February decline

The firm maintained its $150,000 price target by the end of 2026. Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani argued that the current drawdown represented the weakest bear case the asset had faced to date.

"We are experiencing the weakest bitcoin bear case in its history," the analysts wrote. 

They pointed to strong institutional alignment, including a pro-bitcoin U.S. president, spot bitcoin ETF adoption, growing corporate treasury participation, and continued involvement from large asset managers as evidence that the current cycle differed materially from previous bear markets.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded near $68,000, down from its October 2025 high above $126,000. The market continued to watch the $60,000 level as a potential line in the sand between a shallow correction and a deeper drawdown.