EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Bears pause as weak UK Retail Sales lift the pair

In Friday's session, the EUR/GBP pair was sighted at 0.8584, appreciating by 0.30%. After two consecutive days of losses, a neutral to bearish outlook persists in the daily chart as bears take a pause. However, in the four-hour chart, there's a change of scenery with bulls establishing their momentum.

On the fundamental side, the Pound Sterling is experiencing a significant sell-off following the Office for National Statistics's (ONS) report of a steep drop in December's Retail Sales. Sales, excluding fuel, fell by 3.3%, far below the expected 0.6% decrease. Additionally, the measure that excludes fuel declined by 2.1%, against a forecasted 1.3% rise. This unexpected decrease in Retail Sales, including a 3.2% monthly drop in in-store sales, is likely to impact the persistently high inflation outlook, which may push the Bank of England to consider sooner rate cuts. In that sense, if hawkish bets start to ease, the GBP may find further downside.

Technically speaking, the current position of the pair, sitting below the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), sends a clear signal that sellers hold the upper hand in the broader market outlook. The negative slope of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), even though in negative territory, indicates a hint of upward momentum, but it may not be enough to overturn the bearish sentiment. Additionally, the flat red bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) entail a stalemate between buyers and sellers, consolidating the bear's control over the pair's direction. Furthermore, the bears seem to be pausing after two days of marked losses, underlining the short-term bearish view.

Shifting the focus to the shorter-term momentum, the four-hour chart presents a somewhat different scenario. Here, even though the RSI is still sloping upward within the negative territory, the gathered momentum by the bulls may spark a bout of buying pressure, while the MACD’s flat red bars also suggest that the bears are taking a breather.

EUR/GBP technical levels

EUR/GBP daily chart