Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, has adjusted up the EUR/CHF forecast to 1.09 in three months and though she expects demand for the Swiss franc in six month, the 1.06 level offers solid support.
Key quotes
“We now see scope for a move towards 1.09 on a 3-month view, though we also expect another surge in safe-haven demand on a 6-month view which would provide renewed support for the CHF.”
“While Europe’s economy is currently in a poor state, the backdrop for the EUR has been boosted by the European Commission’s budget proposal which takes a step towards regional debt sharing. In addition, the huge extension of the ECB’s PEPP suggests it is willing to do whatever it takes to chase away fears of fragmentation in the region. Although EUR/CHF hit a 5 year low close to 1.05 in May, these events in Europe suggest a break below this level is now far less likely.”
“While we do see scope for another rush towards safe-haven currencies on a 6-month view, assuming improved confidence in the EU/EMU is sustained, we would expect the 1.06/107 area to offer support.”
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