Analysts at BBH note that the focus now shifts to the ECB and of course, after adjusting policy last month, the ECB is highly unlikely to take new initiatives today.
Key Quotes
“The most important new development since the December ECB meeting is the rise in inflation. Headline CPI stood at 1.1% at the end of last year, nearly double the 0.6% pace seen in November. The rise in German CPI to 1.7% can only increase the criticism by the German representatives of the ECB's stance.”
“We look for Draghi to push back. Like several other national central bank presidents, Draghi is likely to caution against exaggerating the increase in inflation and see it as mostly reflecting the recovery in energy prices. The core rate is at 0.9% having bottomed at 0.6%. The ECB will have to wait until new staff forecasts are available in March to understand better if the trajectory of inflation has changed.”
“Last month, Draghi acknowledged that deflationary forces were almost vanquished. He can extend this analysis a little, but it may not yet be time to change the balance of the outlook quite yet. Still, there may be scope for another type of concession to the more hawkish contingent: the reference that rates will remain low or lower can be modified to suggest less risk of lower rates.”
“Draghi, like Yellen, will also likely recognize the high degree of uncertainty. In addition to the uncertainty around the policies and priorities of the new US Administration, Draghi also has to navigate through several elections, including Germany, France, and Netherlands. There is also some risk of elections in Greece and Italy too.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds below 1.0750 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD trades in a tight range below 1.0750 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to gather strength ahead of key PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and helps the pair hold its ground.
GBP/USD consolidates above 1.2500, eyes on US PCE data
GBP/USD fluctuates at around 1.2500 in the European session on Friday following the three-day rebound. The PCE inflation data for March will be watched closely by market participants later in the day.
Gold clings to modest daily gains at around $2,350
Gold stays in positive territory at around $2,350 after closing in positive territory on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges lower ahead of US PCE Price Index data, allowing XAU/USD to stretch higher.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.