In view of the analysts at TDS, Dutch elections kick off the Eurosceptic electoral risks for Europe, but they think both the fears and chance of a large negative surprise have fallen.
Key Quotes
“The anti-EU PVV has seen their consistent polling around 25% fall to around 16%. This now suggests a toss-up as to whether they or VVD, the senior party in the current government, will be the largest party, and given the splintered nature of Dutch politics, makes it unlikely PVV would enter any coalition even if they did eke out the win. And even if a government held a referendum on leaving the Eurozone, it would be non-binding and require a Parliamentary vote.”
“Polls close at 8pm GMT, with some results dribbling out in the hours after that, but may be slow due to controls put in place limiting the computer count to manage hacking risks. The fact this plays out in the afterglow of the Fed makes any clear reaction difficult, but we would expect a stronger move lower in EUR and rates should PVV end up with around 35 seats in the 150 seat Parliament (current polling 23), but this is more as markets increase the risks around a Le Pen victory, with a smaller drift higher as EUR shorts are reduced if PVV falls short and one risk moves into the rear-view mirror.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays below 1.1150 after upbeat US data
EUR/USD pulls away from the daily high it set near 1.1200 and trades below 1.1150 on Thursday. The upbeat data from the US helps the USD limit its losses but the improving risk mood allows the pair to hold its ground in the American session.
GBP/USD retreats below 1.3250 after BoE-inspired rally
GBP/USD loses its bullish momentum and retreats below 1.3250 after touching its highest level since March 2022 above 1.3300 with the immediate reaction to the BoE's decision to leave the policy rate unchanged at 5%. In the US, weekly Jobless Claims declined to 219K.
Gold trades within a touching distance all-time high set at $2,600
Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher and trades back in the $2,580s on Thursday after falling to the $2,540s following the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on interest rates the prior day. The 10-year US T-bond yield stays above 3.7%, limiting XAU/USD's upside.
Bitcoin extends gains after Fed cut interest rate
Bitcoin extends recent gains and trades above $62,000 at the time of writing on Thursday, following a 2.4% increase the previous day after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
BoE expected to keep interest rate unchanged at 5% as price pressures persist
After a close call in August, the Bank of England’s September interest rate decision is keenly awaited for fresh cues on the bank’s future policy action and the pace of its bond sales.
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.